后危机时代人民币国际化的机遇挑战及风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 12:01

本文关键词：后危机时代人民币国际化的机遇挑战及风险研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机后，全球经济转入衰退轨道，经济下滑、失业率增加、消费者信心下降，各国政府都采取了一系列的财政和货币政策致力于维护经济增长，同时也加强了国际合作与协调。许多国家和国际组织将这次危机归咎于全球经济失衡和不合理的国际金融体系，尤其是在作为国际货币的美元采取量化宽松货币政策损害新兴市场国家利益后，改变美元为主的国际货币体系的呼声越来越响。与此同时，中国由于连续三十年的高增长，目前经济总量跃居世界第二，外汇储备充足、人民币不断升值、经济高增速、财政盈余充沛，因而吸引了全球投资者和各国政府的关注，人民币国际化收到追捧。在此背景下，，中国政府也不失时机的采取了一些措施推进人民币国际化。目前人民币国际化正在处于有序的加速推进阶段。本课题以人民币国际化的风险状况为中心，首先梳理了国内外已有的相关研究成果，拓展了思路、形成了基本研究框架。在此基础之上，明确了货币国际化和人民币国际化的涵义、组成部分及现状等；然后详细的分析了我国人民币国际化面临的诸多机遇和挑战。通过综合分析，本课题认为人民币国际化充满机遇和挑战，但是机遇大于挑战，目前逐步推进人民币国际化势在必行；进一步结合现有国际货币存在的问题和人民币国际化面临的独特处境，本课题总结出了人民币国际化所会带来资本大规模进出、货币替代、特里芬难题、现有国际货币阻挠、承担国际义务等方面的危险；进而本课题提出了防范人民币国际化风险的战略步骤和具体对策，如优化国内金融经济环境、完善相关法规政策、逐步进行政策调整等；最后对人民币国际化的路径选择与短中长期的发展进行了展望。
[Abstract]:In 2008, after the international financial crisis, the global economy turned into recession, economic decline, unemployment rate increased, consumer confidence decreased. Governments have adopted a series of fiscal and monetary policies to maintain economic growth. At the same time, international cooperation and coordination had been strengthened. Many countries and international organizations blamed the crisis on global economic imbalances and an illogical international financial system. In particular, the call to change the dollar-dominated international monetary system is growing after quantitative easing of the dollar as an international currency harms the interests of emerging market countries. As a result of three decades of high growth, China's total economic volume has leapt to the second largest in the world, with sufficient foreign exchange reserves, a rising renminbi, a high economic growth rate and abundant fiscal surpluses. As a result, it has attracted the attention of investors and governments around the world, and the internationalization of RMB has received a lot of attention. The Chinese government has also missed the opportunity to take some steps to promote the internationalization of the yuan, which is now in an orderly and accelerating phase. This paper focuses on the risk situation of RMB internationalization, firstly combing the related research results at home and abroad, expanding the train of thought, forming a basic research framework. On this basis. The meaning, components and current situation of currency internationalization and RMB internationalization are clarified. Then it analyzes in detail the opportunities and challenges that China's RMB internationalization faces. Through comprehensive analysis, this topic thinks that RMB internationalization is full of opportunities and challenges, but the opportunities are greater than the challenges. At present, it is imperative to promote RMB internationalization step by step. Further combined with the existing international currency problems and the unique situation of RMB internationalization, this topic summarizes the RMB internationalization will bring large-scale capital in and out, currency substitution, Triffin difficult problem. Existing international monetary obstruction, international obligations and other risks; Then the paper puts forward the strategic steps and specific countermeasures to prevent the risk of RMB internationalization, such as optimizing the domestic financial and economic environment, perfecting the relevant laws and regulations, and gradually carrying out policy adjustment. Finally, the path choice and short-medium-term development of RMB internationalization are prospected.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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