居民短期总资产配置结构与对冲通胀能力研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 22:17

本文关键词：居民短期总资产配置结构与对冲通胀能力研究　出处：《经济问题探索》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文对居民短期财富增长对冲通货膨胀的理论进行梳理,随后搜集并整理出2000——2013年我国居民金融财富和实物财富增长的季度数据。通过Eviews、Mircofit软件,对我国居民金融资产和实物资产对冲通货膨胀的能力建立解释方程,并运用ADL模型进行实证研究。长期居民财富增长同通货膨胀变动存在某种特定的均衡关系,表现为居民金融财富增长对冲预期内通货膨胀具有显著性,且方向一致;居民实物资产对冲预期外通货膨胀的能力较预期内通货膨胀大,但显著性和方向并不完全一致,取决于滞后期数。近年来我国居民财富虽增幅巨大,数据表明居民财富增长对冲通货膨胀的能力有限,但资产配置结构的调整有助于居民对冲通胀能力的提升。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the short-term wealth growth of residents to hedge against inflation theory is combed. Then collect and collate the quarterly data on the growth of financial wealth and physical wealth in China from 2000 to 2013. The paper establishes the explanation equation of the ability of Chinese residents' financial assets and real assets to hedge inflation. Using the ADL model, there is a certain equilibrium relationship between the long-term wealth growth and the inflation change, which shows that the residents' financial wealth growth hedges the expected inflation is significant. And the direction is the same; The ability of real assets to hedge the expected inflation is greater than the expected inflation, but the significance and direction are not completely consistent, depending on the lag. In recent years, the wealth of residents in China has increased greatly. The data show that wealth growth is limited in its ability to hedge inflation, but the adjustment in asset allocation helps to increase residents' ability to hedge inflation.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学;
【基金】：北京市哲学社会科学“十二五”规划重点项目(12JGA015)
【分类号】：F822.5;F126;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言我国通货膨胀预期得到了一定程度的抑制,但是仍有几个客观存在的现实问题:1.产能过剩和实体投资收益率持续走低;2.社会企业生产成本的上升和货币流动性的泛滥;3.短期的经济刺激计划可以消除经济硬着陆的隐患,却从某种程度上推高了通胀的预期。定向调控政策正在潜移默

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