担保链危机的传染机制

发布时间：2018-01-12 14:27

本文关键词：担保链危机的传染机制　出处：《系统工程》2012年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：定义了担保链危机的概念,将现实经济体中企业之间的担保代偿关系抽象成担保链模型,分析了担保链危机的传染过程,发现担保链危机发生一级近邻传染、二级近邻传染、停止传染的临界条件与企业担保调整后的资产负债率有关。建立了担保链危机传染模型,发现触发担保链危机发生一级近邻传染的临界条件、继续传染的临界条件和危机停止传染的条件与企业对外担保金额有关。该模型有助于监管机构用资产负债率和对外担保金额两个指标对担保链中的企业进行风险预警,防止和减少危机的扩散,对促进区域经济可持续发展和金融繁荣稳定具有积极作用。
[Abstract]:This paper defines the concept of guarantee chain crisis, abstracts the guarantee compensatory relationship between enterprises in real economy into a guarantee chain model, analyzes the contagion process of guarantee chain crisis, and finds that the guarantee chain crisis has a first-degree next-neighbor contagion. The critical condition of stopping contagion is related to the asset-liability ratio after enterprise guarantee adjustment. A crisis contagion model of guarantee chain is established, and the critical condition of triggering the first class next-neighbor contagion of guarantee chain crisis is found. The critical condition of continuous contagion and the condition of stopping contagion are related to the amount of external guarantee of enterprise. The model is helpful for regulators to use asset liability ratio and external guarantee amount to carry out risk to enterprises in guarantee chain. Warning. Preventing and reducing the spread of the crisis will play a positive role in promoting regional economic sustainable development and financial prosperity and stability.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071127) 教育部人文社科规划项目(10YJA790248)
【分类号】：F832.39
【正文快照】： 1引言担保链危机是中国特有的现象,这个概念的定义目前还没有形成共识。担保链也称为“担保圈”[1-6],整个圈子存在系统风险,圈内某家企业出现债务危机会通过担保链传染至圈内的其他企业。郎咸平[1]在2001年就开始关注担保圈的系统风险,从上市公司经营活动、投资活动和筹资活

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