外商直接投资对上海市出口贸易影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-13 02:27

本文关键词：外商直接投资对上海市出口贸易影响的实证分析　出处：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在全球经济一体化的今天,外商直接投资和对外贸易在世界经济发展中的作用日益凸显,并且二者之间的关系也愈来愈密切。我国自1978年改革开放以来,在利用外商直接投资不断发展的同时,对外贸易也取得了长足的进展。一国或地区利用的外商直接投资与其贸易之间是否存在着关系,已经是国内外众多学者研究的问题。本文主要分析上海市利用外商直接投资与其出口贸易之间的关系。本文以宏微观国际直接投资的理论为基础,通过对1990-2012年的相关数据进行统计性分析,概括了上海市利用外商直接投资和出口贸易的现状。然后利用EViews软件,通过平稳性检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验来验证上海市利用的外商直接投资对其初级产品、工业制成品以及机电产品、高新技术产品出口额的影响关系；同时也研究了外商直接投资与一般贸易、加工贸易的出口额之问的格兰杰因果关系。最后文章总结实证分析的结论,并提出针对性的对策建议。实证分析发现上海市利用的外商直接投资对其出口贸易总量有着明显的促进作用,但外商直接投资从引入到促进上海的出口总额增长,有两年的时滞；同时外商直接投资可以提升上海市出口商品结构。从长期的均衡关系来看,外商直接投资每增加1%,工业制成品出口额便增加2.78%。同时外商直接投资对一般贸易出口的引导作用比较显著,对于加工贸易的引导作用比较不显著。综合来说,外商直接投资促进了上海市的出口贸易。但从长远来看,上海市有必要出台一系列利用外商直接投资来提升其出口竞争力的政策。
[Abstract]:In today's global economic integration, the role of foreign direct investment and foreign trade in the development of the world economy is increasingly prominent, and the relationship between the two is becoming more and more close. With the development of foreign direct investment, foreign trade has made great progress. Whether there is a relationship between foreign direct investment and foreign trade in a country or region. This paper mainly analyzes the relationship between the utilization of foreign direct investment and its export trade in Shanghai. Based on the theory of macro and micro international direct investment, this paper makes a statistical analysis of the relevant data from 1990 to 2012. This paper summarizes the current situation of using foreign direct investment and export trade in Shanghai, and then makes use of EViews software to pass the stability test. Co-integration test and Granger causality test to verify the impact of Shanghai's FDI on its primary products, manufactured products, mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products exports; At the same time, it also studies the Granger causality between FDI and general trade, export volume of processing trade. Finally, this paper summarizes the conclusions of empirical analysis, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. The empirical analysis shows that the foreign direct investment (FDI) used in Shanghai has an obvious promoting effect on the total export trade, but there is a delay of two years from the introduction of FDI to the promotion of the total export growth in Shanghai. At the same time, foreign direct investment can improve the structure of Shanghai export commodities. From the long-term equilibrium relationship, foreign direct investment increases by 1%. At the same time, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a significant role in guiding general trade exports, but not in processing trade. In the long run, however, it is necessary for Shanghai to introduce a series of policies to improve its export competitiveness by using foreign direct investment (FDI).
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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