金融发展与技术进步对国际贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 14:44

  本文关键词：金融发展与技术进步对国际贸易影响的实证研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 金融发展 技术进步 国际贸易 协整模型

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化的不断发展和推进,金融行业和国际贸易作为主要的推动因素,对世界经济的快速发展做出了巨大的贡献。1978年改革开放以来,我国实现了从封闭半封闭经济到全方位开放的伟大历史转折,我国的金融和对外贸易发展也从这时才真正开始,并伴随着我国市场经济的广泛、深入推进,得到快速的发展。首先,作为拉动我国经济迅速发展的三驾马车之一,对外贸易的发展变化是有目共睹的。国际贸易规模不断扩大,每年的平均增长速度不但超过全球贸易增长速度,甚至比我国的国民经济平均增长速度还快；我国对外贸易额占全球贸易额的比例持续上升,在世界贸易中的排名也不断提高；外贸产业在整个国民经济中的地位也举足轻重,我国的外贸依存度不断上升；外贸产业的发展不仅表现为数量总额的增长,我国进出口商品的结构也得到显著的优化,高新技术产品占外贸总额中的比例也处于持续增长的状态；外贸市场呈现出多元化的发展趋势。与此同时,我国的金融业在改革开放的浪潮中也发展壮大起来：金融发展规模与日俱增,金融服务机构和从业人数不断增加,各种不同种类的银行及其开设的营业网点遍布全国各地；保险行业经营范围和种类不断扩大；证券业更是经历了从无到有,从有到大的剧烈变化过程；我国经济社会的金融业初步形成了包括银行、保险和证券等金融种类在内的多元化机构体系。该体系的不断发展和完善,为我国产业结构的调整、转型及经济的可持续发展和社会的和谐稳定发挥着重要的作用。2008年世界金融危机的发生,不仅对我国的金融行业造成巨大的冲击,更严重影响了我国对外贸易的发展。2009年我国的对外贸易首次出现了负增长,金融行业也被推到了风口浪尖的位置受到整个社会的关注。此后,人们不仅开始反思我国外贸和金融发展中存在的问题,更着重分析研究了金融与国际贸易的关系及影响机制。在国际贸易方面,一度对经济发展做出重大贡献的传统粗放型出口增长模式,也为我国经济的可持续发展带来了诸多问题。首先,长时期的粗放型经济生产方式,对我国的资源和环境造成了较大的损失,会严重影响以后我国对外贸易中传统资源、能源、环境等领域比较优势的竞争性；作为支撑我国对外贸易发展如此之久的大量廉价劳动力这一比较优势,也正在接受着严峻的考验,其原因除了我国人口结构和劳动力供需的不断变化之外,还包括我国的这一外贸竞争优势正在逐步的被孟加拉、越南、柬埔寨等国家所取代；再次,出口产品仍处于全球价值链低端,大量出口的产品主要都属于劳动密集型、以及少量的资本密集型,其中的技术含量都比较低,附加值也不高,而那些高技术含量的生产环节和利益仍旧还是掌握在那些发达国家的手中；最后,我国外贸企业抗风险能力偏低以及对外贸易发展存在不平衡。从以上的分析我们发现,由于我国技术水平低下而导致的国际贸易问题格外突出。同时,我国金融也存在着发展不足等问题。我国政府在金融危机前时期也进行了一系列的发展调整,其中,积极鼓励技术创新、大力发展技术密集型产业,促进全国产业结构的升级,以加快实现我国经济发展的转型。我国学者也从金融发展、技术进步、外贸升级等角度分析了我国的经济增长形势,特别是在金融危机之后,对我国金融发展与对外贸易的关系问题给予了很大的关注和研究,很多学者发现,对于外贸产业中所存在的一系列问题,有很多是能够通过金融的进一步发展和深化而得到解决的。 目前,国内外学者通过不断的研究探索及实证分析发现,一国金融水平的提高对于该国国际贸易的发展有着明显的促进作用,同时金融发展与技术进步之间也存在着某种长期的对应关系,且技术进步同样能促进国际贸易的不断发展,也就是说这些都是从单方面对三者的影响进行分析研究,而很少有人将三者放在同一个框架内,综合考虑三者的长期关系。本文在验证金融发展促进技术进步的基础上,建立一个统一的模型将三者的关系进行综合的研究分析,考察了金融发展对外贸发展的直接影响,以及金融发展以技术进步为渠道进而对国际贸易产生的间接影响,最终将研究结论与实际经济状况相结合,期待从金融角度及技术进步的角度来解决我国当前对外贸易中所出现的各种问题,以实现国际贸易稳定健康的可持续发展,进而继续为我国经济的不断进步做出贡献,同时也分别从金融和技术的角度为我国以后的金融发展道路、现阶段产业结构的升级、以及经济的转型的不断推进提出个人的政策建议。本文基于对我国1978年改革开放以来金融、技术和国际贸易的发展数据,通过建立协整模型,尝试研究金融发展与技术进步对我国对外贸易发展的长期影响。文章主要包括对金融、外贸领域的理论和文献综述的介绍；本文的理论支撑和前两者对国际贸易影响机制的阐述分析；在宏观层面上实证相关指标的选取和协整检验的分析；微观层面上中国进出口银行金融支持与对外贸易的实证分析；以及就实证研究所得出的结论和提出的政策建议等内容。 通过金融发展与技术进步对外贸影响的理论分析和实证研究,文章发现金融发展包括金融规模的扩大、金融结构的优化和金融效率的提升都能够促进技术水平的大力提高；金融规模和金融效率的发展对国际贸易数量的增加和结构的优化都有着长期的促进作用；技术的不断进步更是对外贸产业的规模发展和结构升级做出了功不可没的贡献。由此文章提出在促进我国金融市场不断完善的进程中,应当注重金融体系内部的协调发展,金融规模、结构以及效率均对经济的发展做出了巨大的贡献,而只有维持金融体系内部的协调发展才能使金融市场稳定持续的发展下去；同时加大对非公有制经济的金融支持力度,以提升金融系统的效率并进而促进外贸和经济的发展；大力发展我国股票、债券等市场,充分发挥直接融资市场在金融体系中的重要和巨大的作用；不断提高我国的技术水平,在我国经济发展模式转变的关键时期,技术水平的不断提高不仅会影响我国外贸产业的发展,对我国产业结构的转变、经济稳定的可持续发展等都有着深远的作用和意义。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of global economic integration and promotion of the financial industry and international trade as the main driving factor has made a great contribution to.1978 years of reform and opening up and rapid development of the world economy, China's transformation from a closed and semi closed economy to open a great historical turning point, China's financial development and international trade also from this time began, and with China's market economy widely, further promote the rapid development. First of all, as one of the three carriages driving China's rapid economic development, the development of the change of foreign trade is obvious to people. The scale of international trade expanded, the average annual growth rate of not only more than the world the growth rate of trade, even more than China's average growth rate of the national economy is fast; China's foreign trade volume accounted for the global trade volume ratio continued to rise in the world trade. The ranking is also rising; the status of foreign trade industry in the whole national economy is also important, China's dependence on foreign trade is rising; the development of foreign trade industry is not only the total number of growth, the structure of China's import and export commodities have been significantly optimized, high-tech products accounted for the proportion of total foreign trade in the continued growth of the state; the foreign trade market shows a diversified development trend. At the same time, China's financial industry development is also growing up in the wave of reform and opening up, the scale of financial development and financial services institutions grow with each passing day, the increasing number of practitioners, a variety of different types of banks and business outlets opened across the country; the insurance industry scope and the types of the securities industry is expanding; experienced from scratch, from there to the dramatic changes in the process; the economic society of our country's financial industry The initial formation of the bank, insurance and securities and other financial institutions, diversified types of system. The development and perfection of the system, for the adjustment of industrial structure in China, harmonious and stable transition and sustainable development of economy and society play an important role in.2008 world financial crisis, not only for China's financial the industry has made a great impact, but also a serious impact on the development of.2009 in China's foreign trade in the foreign trade of our country for the first time negative growth, the financial industry is pushed in the teeth of the storm position is the attention of the whole society. Since then, people began to reflect not only China's foreign trade and financial problems in the development, more emphasis on analysis of the relationship and influence mechanism of Finance and international trade. In international trade, the traditional extensive export growth mode once made a significant contribution to economic development, but also for the The sustainable development of China's economy has brought many problems. First, the long period of the extensive mode of economic production, caused great losses to China's resources and environment, will seriously affect the future of traditional resources, China's foreign trade competitive advantage of energy, environment and other fields; as a large number of cheap labor the comparative advantage of supporting the development of foreign trade in China for so long, it is undergoing a severe test, in addition to the changing of China's population structure and labor supply and demand, including the competitive advantages of foreign trade of our country is gradually being Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kampuchea and other countries replaced again, export; the product is still in the low-end of the global value chain, a large number of export products are labor intensive, and the amount of capital intensive, the technical content is low, the added value is not high, and The high-tech production and interests still lies in the hands of those developed countries; finally, the anti risk ability of the foreign trade enterprise of our country is low and the development of foreign trade imbalance exists. From the above analysis we found that due to the low technology level of our country and international trade problems caused by the more prominent. At the same time, China the financial problems with poor development. The Chinese government in the period before the financial crisis is also developed a series of adjustments, which actively encourage technological innovation, vigorously develop the technology intensive industry, promote the industry structure upgrade, to accelerate the transformation of economic development in China. Chinese scholars also from the financial the development, technological progress and upgrading of foreign trade, such as analysis of the China's economic growth situation, especially in the wake of the financial crisis on China's financial development and foreign trade problems given A lot of attention and research have been done by many scholars. Many scholars find that a lot of problems in the foreign trade industry can be solved through further development and deepening of finance.
At present, domestic and foreign scholars through research and empirical analysis to find that a country's financial level has a significant role in promoting the development of the international trade, and between financial development and technological progress are corresponding to the long-term development and some technological progress can also promote international trade, also it is said that these are from unilaterally three factors were analyzed, and few people will put three in the same framework, considering the long-term relationship between the three. Based on the verification of financial development promoting technological progress based on the comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the establishment of a unified model the three, examined the direct effect of financial development on the development of foreign trade, financial development and technological progress as the channel and have indirect influence on international trade, finally the conclusion of the study and Practice International economic situation combined with expectations from a financial point of view and the view of technical progress to solve various problems of China's current foreign trade, in order to achieve stable healthy and sustainable development of international trade, and continue to make contributions to the development of China's economy, but also from the financial and technical aspects of financial development for the road the future of our country, the current industrial structure upgrading and economic transformation of China put forward personal suggestions. The financial of China since the reform and opening up in 1978 based on the development of data technology and international trade, through the establishment of the cointegration model, try to study the financial development and the long-term influence of technological progress on China's foreign trade development. This article mainly includes the financial theory and the field of foreign trade, the introduction of the literature review; the theoretical support and the impact on international trade system This paper analyzes and analyzes the relevant indicators and cointegration test at the macro level, and analyzes the financial support and foreign trade of China's export and import bank at the micro level, as well as the conclusions drawn from the empirical research and policy recommendations.
The financial development and technological progress of foreign trade influence theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper found that financial development including the expansion of the financial scale, financial structure and financial efficiency improvement can promote the technical level to improve and increase; optimization of structure of international trade, the number of the development of the financial scale and financial efficiency are the long-term role in promoting the progress of technology; it is made a contribution to the scale of the development and upgrading of foreign trade industry. This article put forward in promoting the process of China's financial markets continue to improve, should pay attention to the coordinated development of the financial system, the internal financial scale, structure and made great contributions the efficiency of the development of the economy, but only to maintain the coordinated development of the financial system makes financial market stability and sustainable development; and increase the Financial support to the non-public economy, in order to enhance the efficiency of the financial system and thus promote the development of foreign trade and economic development; China's stock, bond market, give full play to the direct financing market in the financial system in an important and huge role; continuously improve the technical level of our country, in a critical period of transformation of economic development mode in China, the improvement of the technology level will not only affect the development of China's foreign trade industry, to change the industrial structure of our country, have a positive and far-reaching significance and role of economic stability and sustainable development.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F124.3;F752

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