人民币汇率变动对我国物价的影响效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 08:19

本文关键词： 名义有效汇率汇率传导机制物价水平　出处：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率无论对于国家还是普通百姓的经济生活都是一个非常重要的经济变量，随着我国改革开放的进程不断加快和日益广泛的经济全球化趋势。汇率不管是对一个国家还是国与国之间的经贸往来影响越来越大，已经逐渐成为反映宏观经济形势好坏的重要指标。而我们发现在汇率调整的同时其他经济数据也随之改变，特别是国内物价水平，而且国内物价水平的变动跟国民生活更是密不可分。随着全球经济一体化的不断加深，现实经济的开放程度逐步增强，汇率和国内物价作为开放经济中一国货币对外价值和对内价值的表现，两者之间存在密切的联系。美国经济学家保罗克鲁格曼（Paul R. Krugman）认为，汇率的大幅波动会导致贬值国家通货膨胀，升值国家通货紧缩。而我国自2005年7月21日实行汇率改革以来，人民币升值幅度逐步加快。人民币兑美元汇率屡创新高，至2012年12月31日人民币兑美元汇率中间价报6.2855，累计升值幅度超过31.2%。同时与之相对应的是，国内物价水平也出现了强劲的上涨势头，2008年CPI上涨了5.9%,一季度更是上涨了8%。进入2010年下半年以来物价水平上涨势头不减，11月份的当月最高值达到5.1%，2011年CPI上涨4.1%，2012年CPI上涨1.7%。我们发现，在我国汇率与物价的关系似乎与经典理论相悖，但又确实存在某种内在的联动关系。所以，，探究汇率和物价水平之间的关系和之间的传导路径变得越来越重要。通过了解和掌握汇率和物价水平之间的联系，我们能更好的在控制一国物价水平的同时，利用好汇率这一宏观经济调控手段，这对国民经济的健康发展具有极为重要的借鉴意义。本文在参考了大量的有关汇率与物价水平相互关系的文献的基础上，对影响消费者物价指数的主要因素：人民币名义有效汇率，货币供应量，进口价格指数，国内生产总值，银行间七天拆借利率等运用计量经济学中的多元线性回归模型来进行了实证研究，得出人民币名义有效汇率与物价水平存在负相关关系，而货币供应量，进口价格指数，国内生产总值和银行间七天拆借利率对物价水平都是正相关关系，即上述五个变量上涨会导致物价水平上涨。造成物价上升的正的效应明显大于负的效应，所以在各种因素的共同影响下会使国内物价上涨，就会使人民币表现出对外升值却对内贬值的现象。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is a very important economic variable for the economic life of both the country and ordinary people. With the process of China's reform and opening to the outside world speeding up and the trend of economic globalization, the exchange rate has more and more influence on the economic and trade exchanges between one country and the other countries. It has gradually become an important indicator of the macroeconomic situation, and we have found that other economic data, especially domestic price levels, have changed along with the exchange rate adjustment. And the change of domestic price level and national life are inextricably linked. With the deepening of global economic integration, the opening degree of the real economy is gradually enhanced. The exchange rate and domestic price are the performance of the external and internal value of a country's currency in an open economy. There is a strong link between the two. American economist Paul Krugman argues that large fluctuations in exchange rates can lead to devalued national inflation. Since the reform of exchange rate in July 21st 2005, the appreciation of RMB has been accelerated gradually, and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar has repeatedly reached a new high. By December 31st 2012, the central exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.2855, with a cumulative appreciation of more than 31.2k.At the same time, the corresponding value was. Domestic price level also showed a strong upward momentum, CPI rose 5.9% in 2008, the first quarter is up 8%. Into the second half of 2010, the price level has not decreased. On November the month peaked at 5.1, CPI rose 4.1 on 2011, and CPI rose 1.7 on 2012. We found. In China, the relationship between exchange rate and price seems to be contrary to the classical theory, but there is a certain internal linkage relationship. It is becoming more and more important to explore the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level and the transmission path between them. By understanding and mastering the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level, we can better control the price level of a country at the same time. It is of great significance for the healthy development of the national economy to make good use of the exchange rate as a means of macroeconomic regulation and control. Based on the reference to a large number of literature on the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level, this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the consumer price index: the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB, the money supply, and the import price index. The gross domestic product (GDP) and the seven-day inter-bank lending rate are used to carry out empirical research by using the multiple linear regression model in econometrics. It is concluded that there is a negative correlation between the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and the price level. The money supply, import price index, gross domestic product (GDP) and the seven-day interbank lending rate are all positively correlated with the price level. That is, the rise of the above five variables will lead to the rise of the price level. The positive effect of the price rise is obviously greater than the negative effect, so under the influence of various factors, the domestic price will rise. Will cause the RMB to show the external appreciation but to the internal depreciation phenomenon.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F726

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