国外通货膨胀预期管理研究的新进展及其借鉴意义

发布时间：2018-01-26 03:18

本文关键词： 通胀预期测量通胀目标制货币政策透明性通胀异质性高阶预期协调预期　出处：《江西社会科学》2012年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀预期管理是当前研究的焦点。本文主要从通货膨胀预期的测量、通货膨胀目标制、货币政策的透明性、通货膨胀的异质性、高阶预期、协调预期六个方面对国外通货膨胀预期管理研究的最新进展进行梳理并总结对我国的借鉴作用。目前,通货膨胀预期测量的主要方法有直接调查法和间接估计法。货币政策的透明程度也是影响预期的关键因素,其中包括通货膨胀目标制,通货膨胀目标作为货币政策的名义锚会更好地锚住通胀预期;央行应该怎样与公众交流以及交流什么内容等问题。目前通货膨胀的异质性,以及高阶预期等问题存在但却经常被各国央行所忽略,应该受到学术界以及央行的足够重视。怎样协调预期也成为当前关注的焦点。
[Abstract]:Inflation expectation management is the focus of current research. This paper mainly from the measurement of inflation expectations, inflation targeting system, monetary policy transparency, inflation heterogeneity, high expectations. Coordination of the six aspects of inflation expectations management abroad to sort out the latest progress and summarize the role of reference to our country. The main methods of inflation expectation measurement are direct survey method and indirect estimation method. The transparency of monetary policy is also a key factor affecting expectations, including inflation targeting system. Inflation target as a nominal anchor of monetary policy will better anchor inflation expectations; The question of how central banks should communicate with the public and what to communicate. The current problems such as the heterogeneity of inflation and higher expectations are often ignored by central banks. It should be paid enough attention by academia and central bank. How to coordinate expectations has also become the focus of current attention.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“开放经济条件下货币政策规则动态计量方法及应用研究”(项目批准号:12JJD790015)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F821.5
【正文快照】： 通货膨胀预期是指公众对后一段时期内可能发生的通货膨胀及其幅度大小的事前估计。通胀预期是导致通货膨胀的重要原因,由于通货膨胀预期是决定通货膨胀动态变动的一个重要的因素,所以央行及政策制定者要锚住通胀预期。[1]否则,一旦消费者和投资者形成强烈的通胀预期,就会改变

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