基于合约理论的中国资本配置效率研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 19:01

本文关键词： 资本配置动态合约理论非正规金融资本回报率　出处：《复旦大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：过去的三十年间,中国资本配置效率的改善对全要素生产率的提高做出了重要的贡献,促进了经济的快速增长。但是与发达国家相比,中国资本配置效率仍然偏低。现阶段中国资本配置效率较低主要体现在两方面：一方面所有制角度的资本配置失效仍然制约着中国经济增长；另一方面,与发达国家相比,中国金融市场仍不够发达,制约着资本配置效率的改善。随着“国退民进”的所有制改革逐渐深化,金融市场本身的影响也越来越重要。本文从合约理论的角度出发,结合中国工业企业数据库的实证数据支持,探讨了中国金融市场资本配置的内在机制,以帮助理解中国资本配置效率演变的过去、现在和未来。在理论方面,本文主要刻画了中国金融市场资本配置问题中的两大现象。一方面,本文构建了一个动态合约理论模型,刻画了企业与金融机构的长期借贷关系,用以分析我国中小企业融资难的现象,并结合中国工业企业数据库对动态模型进行了数值模拟。另一方面,基于合约理论,本文构建了一个一般均衡模型,解释了非正规金融市场的存在原因和内在机制,并且通过模型校准将模型与现实经济相联系,分析了利率政策对二元金融市场的影响。在实证方面,本文整理了1998年至2008年的中国工业企业数据库,为理论模型提供了可靠的数据支持。此外,结合企业层面数据,本文还分析了资本配置效率对1998-2008年间中国制造业企业资本回报率的影响。通过以上的分析,本文得到了如下主要结论：第一,虽然不论是发展中国家还是发达国家,由于信息不对称,中小企业融资都更为困难,但是金融中介机构失效会使得中小企业融资困难程度加深,导致资本配置的失效。因此,提升金融中介机构的效率可以减轻中小企业融资约束,提升资本配置效率。第二,根据本文模型的校准结果,中国非正规金融市场活跃的主要原因是“金融抑制”所导致的资本配置效率扭曲,而非正规金融拥有信息比较优势的因素影响较小。第三,当正规金融市场竞争程度较高时,利率市场化会导致存贷利差的缩小,提高资本配置效率,反之则会损失资本配置效率。第四,资本配置效率改善对中国资本回报率上升的直接影响较小,但是会通过提高生产效率间接作用于资本回报率,随着“国退民进”改革的逐渐深化,资本回报率增速可能会放缓甚至下降。本文的安排如下：第一章提出问题；第二章对本文的研究方法进行介绍,并梳理了与本文主题相关的已有文献；第三章使用动态合约理论考察了中小企业融资约束和金融效率的关系；第四章基于合约理论和金融中介理论建立了中国二元金融市场模型框架,并针对现实中国经济进行校准；第五章分析了资本配置效率对中国资本回报率的影响；第六章总结全文。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, the improvement of China's capital allocation efficiency has made an important contribution to the increase of total factor productivity and promoted the rapid economic growth, but compared with the developed countries. China's capital allocation efficiency is still on the low side. At present, the low efficiency of China's capital allocation is mainly reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, the failure of capital allocation from the angle of ownership still restricts China's economic growth; On the other hand, compared with the developed countries, China's financial market is still underdeveloped, which restricts the improvement of the efficiency of capital allocation. The influence of financial market itself is becoming more and more important. This paper discusses the internal mechanism of capital allocation in China's financial market from the perspective of contract theory and the empirical data of China's industrial enterprise database. In order to help understand the evolution of China's capital allocation efficiency in the past, present and future. In theory, this paper mainly describes the two major phenomena in China's financial market capital allocation. This paper constructs a dynamic contract theory model, depicts the long-term lending relationship between enterprises and financial institutions, to analyze the phenomenon of financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises in China. On the other hand, based on the contract theory, this paper constructs a general equilibrium model. This paper explains the reason and internal mechanism of informal financial market, and analyzes the impact of interest rate policy on dual financial market through model calibration. This paper collates the database of China's industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2008, which provides reliable data support for the theoretical model. In addition, it combines the enterprise level data. This paper also analyzes the impact of capital allocation efficiency on the return on capital of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 1998 to 2008. Through the above analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: first. Although both developing and developed countries, because of information asymmetry, SMEs financing is more difficult, but the failure of financial intermediaries will make SMEs financing difficulties deepen. Therefore, improving the efficiency of financial intermediaries can reduce the financing constraints of SMEs and improve the efficiency of capital allocation. Second, according to the calibration results of this model. The main reason why the informal financial market is active in China is the distortion of capital allocation efficiency caused by "financial repression", while the factor of information comparative advantage of informal finance has little influence. Third. When the degree of competition in the formal financial market is high, the marketization of interest rate will lead to the reduction of deposit and loan interest rate difference, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, otherwise it will lose the efficiency of capital allocation. 4th. The improvement of capital allocation efficiency has little direct effect on the increase of capital return rate in China, but it will indirectly affect the rate of return on capital through improving production efficiency, with the gradual deepening of the reform of "national withdrawal from the people's advance". The growth rate of return on capital may slow down or even decline. The arrangement of this paper is as follows: the first chapter puts forward problems; The second chapter introduces the research methods of this paper, and combs the existing literature related to the theme of this paper; Chapter three studies the relationship between financing constraints and financial efficiency of SMEs by using dynamic contract theory. Chapter 4th establishes the framework of China's dual financial market model based on contract theory and financial intermediation theory, and calibrates the real Chinese economy. Chapter 5th analyzes the impact of capital allocation efficiency on China's return on capital; Chapter 6th summarizes the full text.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5

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