山东省房地产周期与房地产信贷关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 11:26

本文关键词： 房地产周期房地产信贷货币供应量合成指数 VAR模型　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济的发展带动或产生了对商业空间、住宅及配套服务设施的需求,并带动房地产市场的兴起。目前在我国,房地产行业已经成为国民经济发展的重要产业和经济增长的重要动力。改革开放以来,我国的房地产行业得到了快速发展,并进入了前所未有的发展时期。在发展过程中,房地产行业表现出来的周期性波动特征引起了国内外学者的极大关注,并试图运用各种方法对这种周期性进行描述,探讨周期性波动的形成原因及影响因素。房地产信贷的资金支持是房地产行业生长和发展的重要因素。在我国,银行信贷是房地产开发资金的主要来源,如果将房地产开发各个环节的资金加总,其中大约70%都来自银行的房地产信贷。由于我国的资本市场发展还不是特别充分,因此其他融资方式如股权融资、债券融资、信托融资所占比例比较小。除此之外,由于房地产具有不可移动的特点,决定了不同国家、不同城市的房地产市场具有很大差别。正是因为房地产信贷与房地产周期波动之间有着紧密的联系,而且房地产行业的发展呈现出区域性、多元化的特点,本文致力于研究山东省房地产周期性波动和房地产信贷的实证关系。本文共分为六个部分。第一部分简单介绍了文章的研究背景和选题的现实意义,并从两个角度陈述了国内外研究现状。第二部分从理论的角度分析了房地产周期与房地产信贷之间的关系。第三部分从房地产投资额、资金来源、需求供给分析等多个角度对目前山东省房地产业发展现状进行了描述。第四部分是本文主体思想的体现,该部分运用VAR模型实证分析了山东省房地产周期与房地产信贷之前的关系,研究得出房地产信贷对房地产周期波动有滞后的正向的影响,因而可以用信贷政策适当控制房地产周期波动,而相对来说,货币供应量的扩张或者收缩对平抑房地产周期性波动比较无效。第五部分根据实证分析结果和山东省房地产行业目前的现状,从四个方面对房地产调控提出了政策建议。最后一部分陈述了本文存在的不足,提出了下一步需要改进的方向。
[Abstract]:The development of the economy has driven or generated the demand for commercial space, housing and ancillary services, and has led to the rise of the real estate market. The real estate industry has become an important industry in the development of the national economy and an important driving force for economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly and entered an unprecedented period of development. The characteristics of periodic fluctuations in real estate industry have attracted great attention of scholars at home and abroad, and try to use a variety of methods to describe the periodicity, to explore the formation of periodic fluctuations and influencing factors. Capital support for real estate credit is an important factor for the growth and development of the real estate industry. In China, bank credit is the main source of funds for real estate development. About 70% of them come from real estate credit from banks. Because the capital market in China is not fully developed, other financing methods, such as equity financing, bond financing, and trust financing, account for a relatively small proportion. Because of the immovable nature of real estate, the real estate market in different countries and cities is very different. It is precisely because of the close relationship between the real estate credit and the fluctuation of real estate cycle. Moreover, the development of real estate industry presents regional and diversified characteristics. This paper is devoted to studying the empirical relationship between the periodic fluctuation of real estate and the real estate credit in Shandong Province. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part briefly introduces the background of the research and the practical significance of the topic. The second part analyzes the relationship between the real estate cycle and the real estate credit from the theoretical point of view, the third part from the real estate investment, the source of funds, This paper describes the current situation of the real estate industry development in Shandong Province from the point of view of demand and supply analysis. Part 4th is the embodiment of the main idea of this paper. This part empirically analyzes the relationship between real estate cycle and real estate credit in Shandong Province by using VAR model, and draws the conclusion that real estate credit has a lag positive effect on real estate cycle fluctuation. Thus, credit policies can be used to properly control the volatility of the real estate cycle, while relatively speaking, The expansion or contraction of the money supply is relatively ineffective in stabilizing the cyclical fluctuations of real estate. 5th, according to the results of empirical analysis and the current situation of the real estate industry in Shandong Province, The last part states the deficiency of this paper and puts forward the direction to be improved in the next step.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.45

【参考文献】