制度因素对我国国际储备的惯性影响

发布时间：2018-02-28 01:29

本文关键词： 习惯形成缓冲储备模型国际储备　出处：《管理评论》2012年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在缓冲储备理论中引入了习惯形成因素,在BS模型的基础上构造了一个既包括国际收支波动性和机会成本同时又考虑了习惯形成因素的动态调整模型。利用1996-2009年间中国国际储备的月度数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)一国国际储备是国际收支不确定性和机会成本的函数,它们三者之间存在长期均衡关系,也就是说BS理论预期模型在经过适当的修正后对中国外汇储备规模的实证研究是适用的。(2)习惯形成参数越大,以往的制度因素形成的惯性对后期储备积累的影响就越大,国际收支不确定性以及机会成本对储备的影响也越小,并且这个惯性一旦形成,很难立刻改变。(3)正是由于考虑了习惯形成因素,外汇储备规模关于国际收支不确定性的弹性以及机会成本的弹性更接近于BS模型的理论预期值。
[Abstract]:This paper introduces the habit forming factor into the buffer reserve theory. On the basis of BS model, this paper constructs a dynamic adjustment model, which not only includes the volatility of balance of payments and opportunity cost, but also takes into account the factors of habit formation, and makes an empirical analysis using the monthly data of China's international reserves from 1996 to 2009. The results show that a country's international reserves are a function of balance of payments uncertainty and opportunity cost, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among them. That is to say, the larger the parameter of habit formation in the empirical study of the scale of China's foreign exchange reserve after the appropriate revision of the expected model of BS theory, the greater the influence of the inertia formed by the past institutional factors on the later accumulation of reserves. The less uncertain the balance of payments and the opportunity cost, the smaller the impact on reserves, and once this inertia is formed, it is difficult to change it immediately) precisely because the habit formation factor is taken into account. The elasticity of the size of foreign exchange reserves on the uncertainty of balance of payments and the elasticity of opportunity cost are closer to the theoretical expected value of BS model.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;宁夏大学数学计算机学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(7083100171071010) 宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ1025)
【分类号】：F224;F832.52

【参考文献】