基于内外均衡模型的中国外汇储备规模分析

发布时间：2018-03-02 09:28

本文关键词： 外汇储备适度规模内外均衡　出处：《云南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从1978年改革开放时的“外汇短缺”到2013年1季度末外汇储备规模相当于德国经济总量并于年底增至3.8万亿美元，短短36年间我国外汇储备增长了近两万三千倍。我国外汇储备的持续增长，引起了学术界对于我国外汇储备规模适度性的广泛研究分析。我国外汇储备持续性的高速增长背后的真正根源是我国经济发展的内部失衡和外部失衡。内需相对不足、金融市场运行效率低，过剩的储蓄只能以顺差的形式流向国外；另一方面，像中国这种发展中国家在发达国家主导的货币体系内开展贸易，必然会累积大量的外汇储备。为厘清外汇储备的来源，我们从国家外汇管理局中国国际收支平衡表里看出我国的外汇储备主要来自于经常项目顺差和资本与金融项目顺差，另外还有热钱、居民外币储蓄转化、外汇储备投资收益等。回答“外汇储备都去哪儿了？”这个问题，则比较困难，由于相关权威性数据缺失，我们只能大致得出以美元资产为主，大部分以长期美债形式存在的结论。另外，经过分析，我们也得出了外汇储备高增长的三个原因，国内储蓄过剩、以加工贸易为主的贸易方式和长期存在的人民币升值预期。本文的主旨在于探讨我国的外汇储备规模是否适度、如果过大如何减少的问题。本文通过构造了一个内外均衡的理论分析框架，在保持逻辑严密性的条件下，分别选取出了衡量内部均衡和外部均衡的指标，经过数据收集、整理、计算，得出我国经济内部均衡和外部均衡都处于失衡状态，外汇储备规模过大，但维持超额的外汇储备可以保证就业的稳定。在证实了外汇储备规模过大的论断后，我们分析了巨额的外汇储备给我国经济带来的正面和负面的影响。因为外汇储备的核心功能在于维护人民币信心，而负面影响包括央行货币政策独立性受损、宏观调控难度加大、持有成本过高及自我强化的恶性循环机制。由于外汇储备规模过大，弊大于利，本文最后分别从减少外汇供给、增大外汇需求、提升我国金融市场效率改变我国参与国际资本循环方式和基于内外均衡模型提出的改变经济增长方式四个方面提出了外汇储备规模过大的化解之道。在论文的中国外汇储备概况部分，，提及了我国外汇储备的两个投资运营模式：大部分外汇储备由外汇管理局投资美元证券为代表的外币证券，少部分由以中国投资有限公司等主权财富基金投资于境外的股权、固定收益和另类投资。最后，针对2014年1月底的朱长虹离职事件，本文提出应给予国家首席投资官更多理解，控制外汇储备规模是第一位的，提高外汇储备的收益率是第二位的看法。
[Abstract]:From the "shortage of foreign exchange" in the period of reform and opening up in 1978 to the end of the first quarter of 2013, the size of foreign exchange reserves was equivalent to the German economy and increased to 3.8 tillion US dollars at the end of the year. In a short period of 36 years, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased by nearly 23,000 times. The sustained growth of China's foreign exchange reserves has caused extensive research and analysis on the appropriateness of China's foreign exchange reserves in academic circles. The real root behind the sustained rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves is the internal and external imbalances of China's economic development.The domestic demand is relatively insufficient, the financial market is inefficient, and surplus savings can only flow to foreign countries in the form of surplus. On the other hand, developing countries such as China are bound to accumulate large foreign exchange reserves by trading in developed-dominated monetary systems. In order to clarify the sources of foreign exchange reserves, we can see from the balance of payments table of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange that China's foreign exchange reserves mainly come from the current account surplus, the capital and financial account surplus, and hot money. The conversion of residents' foreign currency savings and investment income from foreign exchange reserves, etc., answered, "where has the foreign exchange reserves gone?" "this is a more difficult question. Because of the lack of authoritative data, we can only draw the conclusion that dollar assets are the majority, and most of them are in the form of long-term U.S. debt. In addition, through analysis, we have also found three reasons for the high growth of foreign exchange reserves, the excess of domestic savings, the trade mode dominated by processing trade and the long-existing expectation of RMB appreciation. The main purpose of this paper is to discuss whether the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is appropriate and how to reduce it if it is too large. This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of internal and external equilibrium, under the condition of maintaining strict logic, The indexes to measure internal and external equilibrium are selected respectively. After data collection, collation and calculation, it is concluded that the internal equilibrium and external equilibrium of our economy are both out of balance, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large. But maintaining excess foreign exchange reserves will ensure employment stability. After confirming the argument that the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large, we have analyzed the positive and negative effects of the huge amount of foreign exchange reserves on our economy, because the core function of foreign exchange reserves is to maintain the confidence of the renminbi. The negative effects include the damage of the independence of the central bank's monetary policy, the increasing difficulty of macro-control, the high cost of holding and the self-reinforcing vicious circle mechanism. Because the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. Finally, this paper starts with reducing foreign exchange supply and increasing foreign exchange demand. Improving the efficiency of China's financial market and changing the mode of China's participation in the international capital cycle and changing the mode of economic growth based on the internal and external equilibrium model put forward four ways to resolve the excessive scale of foreign exchange reserves. In the part of the overview of China's foreign exchange reserves, the paper mentions two investment modes of China's foreign exchange reserves: most of the foreign exchange reserves are foreign currency securities represented by US dollar securities invested by safe. A small number of sovereign wealth funds, such as China Investment Co. Ltd, invest in foreign equity, fixed income and alternative investments. Finally, in view of the departure of Zhu Changhong at the end of January 2014, this paper suggests that national chief investment officers should be given more understanding. Control of the size of foreign exchange reserves is the first, foreign exchange reserves yield is the second view.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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