资本项目开放中我国外汇储备的风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 22:01

本文选题：外汇储备　切入点：规模风险　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文在总结了国内外关于外汇储备风险研究的基础上,结合我国加速推动人民币资本项目开放的宏观背景,将我国持有的巨额外汇储备面临的安全问题分为两大类,一类是外汇储备的规模风险,另一类则是外汇储备的结构性风险,结构性风险又被分为了存量资产配侕结构风险和新增外汇储备来源结构风险两种情况来讨论。基于这样的思路,本文首先研究了资本项目开放条件下中国外汇储备的适度规模问题,得出了当前中国外汇储备总量过度的结论。在数据分析的基础上,本文又结合了资本项目开放可能导致金融危机爆发的国际经验,提出了中国巨额外汇储备在可预期的未来依然存在着不足的可能这一观点,同时也分析了外汇储备规模过大的另一种风险：外汇储备规模过大对我国宏观经济运行造成的负面影响。其次,本文对当前中国外汇储备资产配侕结构所面临风险进行了阐述,进而得出了在不影响国家金融安全的前提下,中国应逐步调整以美元资产为主体的外汇储备资产配侕结构的结论。最后从新增外汇储备来源结构角度出发,分析了影响中国外汇储备综合状况的影响因素,并特别强调了资本项目开放中一些“中国式”的特殊风险。在上述研究的基础上,本文对我国外汇储备风险的防范提出了相应的对策和建议,同时也对人民币资本项目开放进程应该注意的问题提出了自己的一点看法。
[Abstract]:On the basis of summarizing the research on the risk of foreign exchange reserve at home and abroad and combining with the macro background of accelerating the opening of RMB capital account in China, this paper divides the security problems faced by the huge foreign exchange reserves held by our country into two categories. One is the scale risk of the foreign exchange reserve, the other is the structural risk of the foreign exchange reserve. The structural risk is divided into two situations: the structural risk of the allocation of the stock assets and the structural risk of the source of the new foreign exchange reserve. Based on this idea, this paper first studies the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves under the condition of capital account opening, and draws the conclusion that the total amount of China's foreign exchange reserves is excessive. This paper also combines the international experience that the opening of capital account may lead to the outbreak of financial crisis, and puts forward the view that China's huge foreign exchange reserves are still insufficient in the foreseeable future. At the same time, it also analyzes another kind of risk of excessive scale of foreign exchange reserve: the negative effect of excessive scale of foreign exchange reserve on the macro-economic operation of our country. Secondly, this paper expounds the risks faced by China's foreign exchange reserve asset allocation structure at present. The conclusion is that, without affecting the national financial security, China should gradually adjust the structure of the allocation of foreign exchange reserve assets with US dollar assets as the main body. Finally, from the perspective of the new foreign exchange reserve source structure, This paper analyzes the influence factors on the comprehensive situation of China's foreign exchange reserves, and emphasizes the special risks of "Chinese style" in capital account opening. On the basis of the above research, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the prevention of the risk of foreign exchange reserve in China, and also puts forward some views on the problems that should be paid attention to in the course of opening up the RMB capital account.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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