中国货币安全的隐患与风险——基于金融加速器理论视角

发布时间：2018-03-05 07:32

本文选题：货币安全　切入点：金融加速器　出处：《金融理论与实践》2012年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于金融加速器理论,对我国货币对内、对外安全及二者之间的关系进行深度分析,指出在未来经济潜在增速下降、货币增长减速过程中的主要风险与隐患。劳动力增长率以及劳动生产率增长率的"双放缓"带来潜在经济增速下降,劳动力结构的变化与经济驱动力向消费的转换导致货币供给高增长基础改变,此轮经济周期累积的局部"过度负债"问题使经济、金融系统相对脆弱,资产价格泡沫破裂将通过下行周期中的金融加速器效应对经济产生加倍收缩;经济再平衡过程中,货币错配导致开放经济下的金融加速器效应放大资本流出、汇率贬值的冲击。因此,在经济减速过程中,资产泡沫的调控政策与手段要渐进与审慎,货币政策需建立灵活的资产价格应对规则,房地产等资产泡沫的调控应回到市场化的轨道上,经济稳定、货币稳定、金融稳定三者需纳入统一的目标框架。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of financial accelerator, this paper makes a deep analysis of the internal and external security of China's currency pairs and the relationship between the two, and points out that the potential growth rate of the economy will decline in the future. The main risks and pitfalls in the deceleration of monetary growth. The "double slowdown" of the growth rate of labor force and the growth rate of labor productivity leads to a decline in potential economic growth. The change of labor force structure and the shift of economic driving force to consumption change the base of high growth of money supply. The local "excessive debt" problem accumulated in this economic cycle makes the economy and financial system relatively weak. The bursting of the asset price bubble will double the contraction of the economy through the financial accelerator effect in the downward cycle; in the process of economic rebalancing, the mismatch of currency causes the financial accelerator effect in the open economy to amplify the capital outflow. The impact of exchange rate depreciation. Therefore, during the process of economic slowdown, the adjustment and control policies and means of asset bubbles should be gradual and prudent, and monetary policy should establish flexible asset price response rules. The regulation and control of real estate and other asset bubbles should be returned to the track of marketization. Economic stability, monetary stability and financial stability should be brought into the unified target framework.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;中国中投证券研究总部;华北电力大学;
【基金】：2012年度国家社会科学基金重点项目《系统性金融风险与宏观审慎监管研究》(批准号:12AJY012)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F822

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