加工贸易、汇率和中国的双边贸易平衡

发布时间：2018-03-08 00:38

本文选题：加工贸易　切入点：汇率　出处：《金融研究》2012年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于中国(指中国大陆地区,下同)与51个贸易国家和地区之间的1993-2008年的面板数据,研究了加工贸易在中国双边贸易平衡中的作用,以及人民币升值对加工贸易的影响。实证分析表明:(1)在此期间中国每年的贸易顺差,都来自于加工贸易;(2)中国的加工贸易呈现明显的区域偏好——在2008年77%的加工贸易进口来自于东亚经济体,但是只有29%的加工贸易出口面向东亚经济体;(3)人民币升值对加工贸易的出口和进口都具有负面影响——人民币实际升值10%,不仅会使中国加工贸易出口下降9.1%,也会导致加工贸易进口下降5.0%.因此,人民币的适度升值对于中国加工贸易以及整体贸易平衡的改善作用有限。
[Abstract]:Based on panel data from 1993 to 2008 between China and 51 trading countries and regions, this paper studies the role of processing trade in China's bilateral trade balance. And the impact of RMB appreciation on processing trade. Empirical analysis shows that China has an annual trade surplus during this period. China's processing trade presents a clear regional preference-in 2008, 77% of processing trade imports came from East Asian economies. But only 29% of processing trade exports to East Asian economies) RMB appreciation has a negative impact on both exports and imports of processing trade the actual appreciation of RMB 10% will not only cause China's export of processing trade to drop 9.1%, but also lead to a decrease of 9.1%. As a result of a decrease in imports of processing trade of 5.0%. The moderate appreciation of RMB has limited effect on the improvement of China's processing trade and overall trade balance.
【作者单位】：亚洲开发银行研究院;日本政策研究大学院大学;
【分类号】：F752;F832.6

【相似文献】