中国电子货币对通货膨胀影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 11:27

本文选题：电子货币　切入点：通货膨胀　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：综观货币发展的历史,货币形态先后经历了实物货币、金属货币、纸币等不同的发展阶段。20世纪90年代以来,随着电子信息技术和网络通讯技术的不断发展,货币形态朝着电子化方向发展,推动了支付体系由传统方式向电子支付演进。回顾历史,纸币替代黄金作为支付工具出现后,引发不同程度的通货膨胀(或通货紧缩),那么,电子货币对纸币的广泛替代是否会对通货膨胀产生一定的影响呢?本文将从电子货币视角出发,通过理论与实证相结合的方法分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响。一方面,以电子货币对货币供求和货币流通速度的影响为出发点,结合货币供给模型、货币需求理论以及费雪方程式等理论基础,从理论方面分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响。另一方面,以理论分析为基础选取相应的变量建立计量经济学模型进行实证分析,并通过实证结果分析电子货币对通货膨胀的影响效应及其程度。通过本文的分析得出以下结论：首先,电子货币的发展使得货币供给量放大而货币需求量缩小,那么它们的增量也将发生同样的变化,从而使得物价水平的增长率被放大,所以电子货币的发展对通货膨胀有一定的放大效应。其次,在短期内,货币供给水平和产出水平都不易调整,那么根据费雪方程式MV=PY,货币流通速度的变化将会引起物价水平在短期内的同向变动,即货币流通速度在短期内变动加快了通货膨胀的形成,所以电子货币的发展对通货膨胀有一定的加速效应。最后,通过实证结果分析得出,货币供给量、货币流通速度及电子货币使用率与物价水平成同向变动的关系。这表明,电子货币的发展与通货膨胀有相关性,且对通货膨胀具有一定程度的放大效应和加速效应。随着电子信息技术的完善,金融体系的创新等方面的发展,电子货币的发展将会不断深化不断扩张,达到高度发达的水平,其对通货膨胀的影响也会更为显著。
[Abstract]:Abstract: looking at the history of monetary development, the monetary form has experienced different stages of development, such as physical currency, metal currency, paper currency, etc. Since 90s, with the continuous development of electronic information technology and network communication technology, The development of monetary form toward the electronic direction has promoted the evolution of the payment system from the traditional way to the electronic payment. Looking back at the history, when paper money replaced gold as a payment tool, it caused different degrees of inflation (or deflation). Will the widespread substitution of electronic money for paper money have a certain impact on inflation? From the perspective of electronic money, this paper will analyze the effect of electronic money on inflation through the combination of theory and practice. On the one hand, it will take the influence of electronic money on the supply and demand of money and the velocity of money circulation as the starting point. On the basis of money supply model, money demand theory and Fisher's equation, this paper analyzes the effect of electronic money on inflation from the theoretical point of view, on the other hand, On the basis of theoretical analysis, the econometrics model is established to analyze the effect of electronic money on inflation and the extent to which electronic money affects inflation. The conclusions are as follows: firstly, The development of electronic money magnifies the supply of money and shrinks the demand for money, so their increments will also change in the same way, so that the growth rate of the price level will be magnified. Therefore, the development of electronic money has a certain magnifying effect on inflation. Secondly, in the short term, the level of money supply and the level of output are not easy to adjust. Well, according to Fisher's equation MVPY, the change in the velocity of money circulation will cause the price level to change in the same direction in the short term, that is, the change of the velocity of money circulation in the short term speeds up the formation of inflation. So the development of electronic money has a certain accelerating effect on inflation. Finally, through the empirical analysis, it is concluded that the relationship between the quantity of money supply, the velocity of money circulation and the usage rate of electronic money and the price level is in the same direction. The development of electronic money is related to inflation, and has a certain degree of amplification and acceleration effects on inflation. With the improvement of electronic information technology, the innovation of financial system and other aspects of the development, The development of electronic money will continue to expand to a highly developed level, and its impact on inflation will be more significant.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F822

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