基于通货膨胀目标制的我国货币政策框架研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 08:26

本文选题：货币政策框架　切入点：通货膨胀目标制　出处：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀目标制在上个世纪80年代末被引入货币政策框架体系,至今已经历了20多年的历程。通货膨胀目标制在正确引导通胀预期、减少通胀波动性与降低通胀率、提高货币政策操作的信誉度和透明度、减少产出波动以及促进经济增长等方面发挥了积极、显著作用。通货膨胀目标制在西方国家的成功实践和本身的制度优势使其成为当前最为流行的货币政策框架,也为许多国家对既有货币政策框架改革提供了指引。当前,我国采取的是以货币供给量为中介目标的货币总量目标制的货币政策框架。通过考察我国现行货币政策框架下的货币政策实践,可以发现,伴随着经济全球化和金融创新,我国现行的货币政策框架在应对经济冲击时表现的力不从心,频繁地运用货币政策工具对经济进行调整加大了未来经济的不确定性,在稳定价格水平和带动经济增长等方面成效不高。基于超越对数函数的随机前沿分析结果也表明,我国现行货币政策框架下的货币政策整体调控效率不高,究其背后原因,是因为我国货币政策目标没有进行清晰的描述和界定,我国货币供应量在可测性、可控性和相关性等方面出现了明显问题,同时货币传导机制得不到有效发挥。现行货币政策框架的低效影响了我国的经济发展,需要我们做出抉择和改变,而通货膨胀目标制具有一定弹性的前瞻性操作机制为我国的货币政策改革提供了很好的借鉴。现行货币政策框架本身的缺陷和通货膨胀目标制的制度优势决定了选择通货膨胀目标制作为我国的货币政策框架具有一定的合理性和必然性。为了使我国现行货币政策框架平稳地过渡到通货膨胀目标制上来,本文建议设置过渡期,在过渡期内实行“双目标制”,并提出了具体的执行方案；然后提出了一些政策建议,第一,有序和稳妥推进利率市场化改革；第二,进一步推进和完善人民币汇率形成机制；第三,提高金融体系的整体稳健性。
[Abstract]:Inflation targeting system was introduced into the monetary policy framework system at the end of -20s, and has gone through more than 20 years. Inflation targeting system is to guide inflation expectations correctly, reduce inflation volatility and reduce inflation rate. To improve the credibility and transparency of monetary policy operations, reduce output volatility, and promote economic growth, etc. The successful practice of inflation targeting in Western countries and its own institutional advantages make it the most popular monetary policy framework at present, and also provide guidance for many countries to reform the existing monetary policy framework. Our country adopts the monetary policy frame of the monetary aggregate target system with the monetary supply quantity as the intermediate target. By examining the monetary policy practice under the current monetary policy framework of our country, we can find that it is accompanied by the economic globalization and the financial innovation. The current monetary policy framework of our country is unable to cope with the economic shock. The frequent use of monetary policy tools to adjust the economy has increased the uncertainty of the future economy. The results of stochastic frontier analysis based on transcending logarithmic function also show that the overall control efficiency of monetary policy under the current monetary policy framework of our country is not high. Because our monetary policy objectives have not been clearly described and defined, there are obvious problems with our money supply in terms of measurability, controllability and relevance. At the same time, the monetary transmission mechanism cannot be effectively brought into play. The inefficiency of the current monetary policy framework has affected the economic development of our country and needs us to make choices and changes. The inflation targeting system has a flexible forward-looking operation mechanism, which provides a good reference for China's monetary policy reform. The defects of the current monetary policy framework and the institutional advantages of inflation targeting system determine that. It is reasonable and inevitable to choose the inflation target as the monetary policy framework of our country. In order to make the current monetary policy framework of our country transition smoothly to the inflation target system, This paper proposes to set up a transitional period, to implement the "double objective system" in the transitional period, and to put forward some specific implementation plans. Then it puts forward some policy suggestions, first, to advance the market-oriented reform of interest rates in an orderly and steady manner; second, to promote the market-oriented reform of interest rates. Further promote and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism; third, improve the overall stability of the financial system.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F822.0

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