中国人口年龄结构变化对居民储蓄率的影响：1978-2012

发布时间：2018-03-13 15:04

本文选题：人口年龄结构　切入点：少儿抚养比　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国异乎寻常的高储蓄率成为国内外学者研究的热点，其解释的角度也不尽相同。目前中国的居民储蓄率接近30%，这被普遍认为是导致国内消费动力不足的原因之一。本文构建了引入人口年龄结构变量（少儿抚养比和老年抚养比）的中国居民储蓄函数模型，采用中国1978-2012年时间序列数据，通过协整分析、向量自回归模型（VAR）以及格兰杰因果检验等方法，对少儿抚养比和老年抚养比变化对中国居民储蓄的影响进行了实证研究。实证研究发现：（1）少儿抚养比和老年抚养比与居民储蓄率之间存在长期均衡关系，，少儿人口抚养比每增加1个百分点，居民储蓄率就会降低0.43个百分点，而老年抚养比每增加1个百分点，居民储蓄率将上升0.23个百分点；（2）抚养比与储蓄率之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系。即解释变量少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的变化是影响我国居民储蓄变动的原因；（3）脉冲响应图形表明，少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的变动对居民储蓄增长率的影响分别为负和正，即随着少儿抚养比的上升，居民储蓄增长率下降，随着老年抚养比的上升，居民储蓄增长率增加。
[Abstract]:The unusually high savings rate in China has become a hot topic for scholars at home and abroad. At present, the household savings rate in China is close to 30%, which is generally considered to be one of the reasons for the lack of domestic consumption power. This paper constructs the introduction of population age structure variables (child dependency ratio and child dependency ratio). The Chinese resident savings function model based on the old age dependency ratio, Using Chinese time series data from 1978 to 2012, using cointegration analysis, vector autoregressive model (VARs) and Granger causality test, etc. This paper makes an empirical study on the influence of children's dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio on Chinese residents' savings. The empirical study shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between children's dependency ratio and old age's dependency ratio and resident savings rate. For every 1 percentage point increase in the dependency ratio of the child population, the resident savings rate will be reduced by 0.43 percentage points, while the old-age dependency ratio will increase by 1 percentage point. There is a one-way Granger causality relationship between the dependency ratio and the savings rate. The impulse response figure shows that, The influence of children's dependency ratio and old age's dependency ratio on the growth rate of residents' savings is negative and positive respectively, that is, with the increase of children's dependency ratio, the rate of resident's saving growth rate decreases, and with the increase of old age's dependency ratio, the resident's savings growth rate increases.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24;F832.22

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