全球经常账户均衡决定、可持续性与失衡调整——文献评述与展望

发布时间：2018-03-23 22:36

本文选题：经常账户均衡决定　切入点：经常账户可持续性　出处：《上海金融》2012年01期

【摘要】：全球外部经济失衡呈现越来越严重的态势,关于全球经常账户均衡决定、可持续性与失衡调整的研究成果也有了快速发展。传统的局部均衡分析方法主要集中在收入、相对价格、支出、结构等方面,而跨期方法与叠代模型的引入使研究有了更合理的分析框架。对经常账户均衡决定因素的挖掘深入到了财政收支、储蓄和投资、生产率冲击、实际汇率、金融制度发展、经济增长与收入变动、人口结构变迁以及由此组成的综合因素。但外部失衡的理论框架解释现实的能力仍不够强,政治思维的进入将使问题复杂化。失衡调整偏重经常账户逆差调整也不适应当前的情况。未来研究中,放松一个小国开放经济的假设,更多地引入不确定性,以及经常账户逆转的临界点、预警指标及逆转的冲击效应将会被高度重视。
[Abstract]:The global external economic imbalance is becoming more and more serious. The research results of sustainability and imbalance adjustment have also developed rapidly on the decision of global current account equilibrium. Relative price, expenditure, structure and so on, and the introduction of intertemporal method and superposition model make the research have a more reasonable analytical framework. The mining of the determinants of current account equilibrium goes deep into the impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure, savings and investment, productivity impact, etc. The real exchange rate, the development of the financial system, the changes of economic growth and income, the changes of population structure and the combination of these factors. But the theoretical framework of external imbalance is not strong enough to explain the reality. The entry of political thinking will complicate the problem. The imbalance adjustment, which focuses on the adjustment of the current account deficit, will not adapt to the current situation. In future research, the assumption that a small country will open up its economy will be relaxed and more uncertainty will be introduced. As well as the critical point of current account reversal, early warning indicators and the impact of the reversal will be highly valued.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目《中国经常账户均衡研究》(10YJC790414) 北京哲学社会科学规划项目《全球经济再平衡背景下经常账户适度性与逆转冲击效应研究》北京市属高校人才强教计划(2010-2012)的支持
【分类号】：F831.7

【参考文献】