人民币汇率波动对我国出口商品结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 20:20

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：出口商品结构　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：对外开放以来,我国的对外贸易取得了快速的发展,为我国社会经济的快速发展做出了较大的贡献。人民币汇率和我国对外贸易的联系也越来越密切。人民币汇率波动不仅影响了我国的贸易收支状况,而且也推动了我国出口商品结构的变化。在当前人民币小幅度、稳定的升值进程中,只对总量的变化进行研究是不够的,并且也不能表现汇率变动对各种商品类别的影响作用,因此,研究汇率对出口商品结构的影响是非常必要的。汇率的变动引发商品在国际市场上的出口相对价格的变化,改变出口商品的出口贸易竞争力,进而改变国际市场对我国出口商品的需求,除此之外还有其他如要素禀赋、出口国国内产业结构、科技水平等因素影响一国出口商品的结构,目前已经存在很多关于这些影响因素的理论研究,并得出了很多优秀的研究成果。因而本文就着重从汇率变动这个角度来研究我国出口商品结构的变化。2005年我国汇率制度改革以来,人民币升值剧烈的冲击了我国进出口贸易,但也为提升我国外贸结构带来了契机。长期以来,我国出口产品都是技术含量低、附加值低的,这导致我国出口产品生产企业处于世界产业链的底端。要实现我国进出口贸易质的飞跃,必须改变现状。人民币升值对我国出口商品结构的优化是有推动作用的,然而这个过程应该是循序渐进的。我们要借鉴其它国家的经验和教训,根据我国的实际情况制定配套的政策,以促进我国出口商品结构优化的顺利进行。人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国出口商品结构的转变和优化有着深远的影响。本文主要研究汇率变动与我国出口商品结构之间的关系。可以分为四章。第一章,绪论。说明了本文选题的背景和意义,概述了本文研究的相关文献综述,简要介绍了这方面国内外的相关研究成果。第二章,汇率波动对出口商品结构影响的理论基础。主要介绍了汇率与比较优势论、汇率的弹性分析理论,汇率非中性理论。从理论上考察一国汇率变动对出口商品结构的影响,并且在比较优势理论中引入汇率这一因素,得出汇率变动会改变一国出口产品竞争优势的结论。第三章,汇率变动对我国出口商品结构的影响。首先介绍了汇率和出口商品结构的相关概念和发展状况,然后具体分析人民币汇率变动是如何影响我国出口商品结构的。在本文实证分析部分,以1990年到2012年的年度数据为样本,建立GDP、FDI、汇率和出口商品结构这些变量间的计量模型,对它们进行格兰杰因果分析等来分析各变量间的因果关系和彼此间的影响程度。最后得出结论：人民币实际有效汇率与出口商品结构存在单向格兰杰因果关系,汇率变动、外商直接投资和我国国内经济发展水平都对出口商品结构产生影响。从长期来看,在资本和技术要素不存在严重制约的条件下,人民币汇率的升值对出口商品结构的变化有正向带动作用。第四章,研究结论及相关对策建议。根据理论分析和实证分析的结果,提出提升我国出口商品结构的相关政策建议,通过提高我国出口产品的技术含量和附加值、升级产业结构、实施金融创新等措施来实现我国对外贸易出口产品结构由“量”到“质”的转变。
[Abstract]:Since the opening up, China's foreign trade has made rapid development, has made great contributions to the rapid development of China's economy. The RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade ties have become increasingly close. The RMB exchange rate fluctuations not only affect China's trade balance situation, but also promote the change in China the export commodity structure. In the current RMB appreciation of small amplitude, stable process, only to the total change research is not enough, and can not show the impact of changes in exchange rates, the categories of all kinds of goods it is very necessary to study the exchange rate impact on the export commodity structure. The exchange rate changes caused by the goods in on the international market of export relative price changes change the export commodity export trade competitiveness, and then change the international market for China's export demand, in addition to the he Factor endowment, export of domestic industrial structure, influence the structure of export commodities and other factors of the level of science and technology, there are already a lot of theoretical research on these factors, and got many outstanding research results. And since this paper focuses on the exchange rate from the point of view to study the changes of.2005 China's export commodity structure in our in appreciation of the RMB exchange rate system reform, severe impact on China's import and export trade, but also brings an opportunity for the promotion of foreign trade structure in China. For a long time, China's export products are low tech, low added value, which led to China's export production enterprises in the world to the bottom of the industrial chain. Import and export trade of our country leap, must change the status quo. RMB appreciation has promoting effect on the optimization of China's export commodity structure, but the process should be gradual. We should learn from other countries experience and lessons, making related policies according to the actual situation of our country, in order to promote the optimization of China's export commodity structure smoothly. RMB real effective exchange rate has a profound impact on the transformation and optimization of China's export commodity structure.
This paper mainly studies the relationship between exchange rate and China's export commodity structure. It can be divided into four chapters. The first chapter, introduction. Explains the background and significance of this topic, summarizes the related literature review this paper, briefly introduces the research achievements at home and abroad. The second chapter, theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations the export commodity structure. This paper mainly introduced the exchange rate and the comparative advantage theory, theoretical analysis of the exchange rate elasticity of exchange rate, non neutral theory. A study of influence of exchange rate on export commodity structure in theory, and the exchange rate factor introduced in the comparative advantage theory, the exchange rate will change the competitive advantage of a country's exports the conclusion. In the third chapter, effects of exchange rate changes on China's export commodity structure. Firstly introduces the concepts of exchange rate and export commodity structure and development status, and then a detailed analysis of the people The RMB exchange rate change is how to influence China's export commodity structure. In the part of empirical analysis, the annual data from 1990 to 2012 as a sample, the establishment of GDP, FDI, the measurement model of exchange rate and export commodity structure between these variables, Grainger causality analysis on them to analyze the causal relationship between the variables and the influence to each other. The degree of Inter. Conclusion: there is a one-way causal relationship between Grainger, the real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate and export commodity structure, foreign direct investment and China's domestic economic development level of impact on export commodities. In the long term, does not exist in the capital and technical elements restrict conditions, the RMB exchange rate the appreciation has positive effect on the change of the structure of export commodities. In the fourth chapter, the research conclusion and relevant countermeasures and suggestions. According to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, This paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to improve the structure of China's export commodities. By improving the technological content and added value of China's export products, upgrading industrial structure and implementing financial innovation, China's foreign trade export product structure will change from quantity to quality.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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