汇率、工资和经济增长对我国就业的影响:1994—2010——基于制造业动态面板数据的实证检验

发布时间：2018-03-27 07:33

本文选题：制造业　切入点：劳动力　出处：《产业经济研究》2012年03期

【摘要】：本文采用1994～2003年和2004～2010年制造业面板数据,运用GMM估计方法,分别考察汇率、工资和经济增长对中国全部制造业、不同外向度和不同劳动密集度制造业部门均衡就业的影响。结果显示,不管是整体还是分类回归,2004年前,制造业部门就业都与实际有效汇率、工资负相关,与经济增长、滞后一期就业正相关,但2004后就业与实际有效汇率负相关,与经济增长、滞后一期就业正相关。从整体上看,2004年前经济增长对制造业部门就业影响不明显,2004年后则有微弱的拉动作用,并主要作用于外向度低的部门。在分类检验中,2004年前的就业实际有效汇率弹性大于2004年后,且外向度高的企业就业受汇率升值的不利影响更大。此外,2004年前工资也对制造业部门就业造成较大冲击。
[Abstract]:Using panel data of manufacturing industry from 1994 to 2003 and from 2004 to 2010, this paper uses GMM estimation method to investigate the effect of exchange rate, wage and economic growth on all manufacturing industries in China. The results show that before 2004, employment in the manufacturing sector was negatively correlated with the real effective exchange rate, wages and economic growth, regardless of whether it was a whole or a classification regression. After 2004, employment is negatively correlated with real effective exchange rate and economic growth. As a whole, economic growth had no obvious impact on employment in the manufacturing sector before 2004, but had a weak pull after 2004. In the classification test, the real effective exchange rate elasticity of employment before 2004 is greater than that after 2004. Moreover, the employment of highly extroverted enterprises is more adversely affected by the appreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, wages before 2004 also had a big impact on the employment in the manufacturing sector.
【作者单位】：广东商学院金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“金融危机后人民币汇率大国博弈及中国对策研究”(项目编号:11CGJ009) 广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“后危机时代人民币汇率的大国博弈与中国的对策”(项目编号:GD10YYJ07)的阶段性成果广东省“千百十”工程第六批人才培养项目广东商学院金融市场投融资科研创新团队的资助
【分类号】：F249.2;F832.6;F124

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