我国人口抚养比变化对居民储蓄率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 06:26

本文选题：人口抚养比　切入点：少儿抚养比　出处：《重庆理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的快速发展，我国居民的生活与健康水平得到了大幅度的提升，医疗科技的进步与居民生活饮食的改善，逐步提升了我国居民的人均寿命，这促使我国老年人口（指65岁及以上年龄人口）的数量越来越多。加之几十年来政府计划生育政策的严格实施以及当今年轻人生活压力和家庭生活成本的不断加大，造成人们生育率和再生育意愿逐渐下降。多方面的因素促使我国目前的少儿抚养比的呈现出持续下降的状态，而我国人口的老年抚养比却呈现出不断加速上升的趋势，这种情况的出现一方面加剧了劳动年龄人口的负担另一方面也会造成劳动力的短期。近些年来我国一些地区频频出现的劳动力短缺状况，我国面临日益严峻的养老保障资金压力与缺口，居民的消费意愿不强烈，大多数人都把钱存在银行里，这使得我国的居民储蓄率已经高到了不合理的水平，导致我国经济在长期发展中内在的推动力不足。种种问题的浮现表明我国人口问题已经发生了深层次的转变，如何解释以及怎样应对这种人口结构的转变，对未来我国社会经济发展具有至关重要的影响。本文首先对文章要研究的相关概念进行解释说明，然后阐述了国内外相关学者在人口抚养比，人口年龄结构与储蓄关系方面的研究成果与结论。随后以储蓄生命周期理论、家庭储蓄理论等较为经典的西方经济学和人口学理论作为基础，选取中国1990～2009年共20年的人口抚养比和居民储蓄率作为本文实证研究的数据来源，基于VAR模型，运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法分析了少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民储蓄率三者之间的关系。实证分析结果表明：少儿抚养比和老年抚养比均是居民储蓄率的格兰杰原因，同时通过脉冲相应分析和方差分解分析可以知道，从长期来看，少儿抚养比的变化对居民储蓄率的影响逐渐微弱，，而老年抚养比的变化对居民储蓄率的影响则逐渐加强。本文最后的几个章节主要阐述了日本人口抚养比变化对本国经济和社会造成的影响，以及日本政府为应对人口问题所采取的措施。然后结合我国的实际国情，为我国未来人口和经济发展政策提供一些有益的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the living and health level of Chinese residents has been greatly improved. The progress of medical science and technology and the improvement of residents' daily diet have gradually increased the average life expectancy of Chinese residents. This has led to an increasing number of elderly people in our country, including the strict implementation of the government's family planning policy over the past decades and the increasing burden of life and the cost of family life for young people today. As a result of the gradual decline in the fertility rate and the willingness to reproduce again, a number of factors have led to a continuous decline in the current child dependency ratio in China, while the old age dependency ratio of the Chinese population has shown an increasing trend of acceleration. The emergence of this situation on the one hand exacerbates the burden on the working-age population, on the other hand, it will also result in the short-term labor force. In recent years, there have been frequent labour shortages in some areas of our country. Our country is facing the increasingly severe pressure and gap of the endowment security fund, the residents' willingness to spend is not strong, most people keep their money in the bank, which makes the resident savings rate of our country have reached an unreasonable level. The emergence of various problems indicates that China's population problem has undergone a profound transformation, how to explain and how to deal with this demographic change. In the future, China's social and economic development has a crucial impact. This paper first explains the relevant concepts to be studied in the article, then expounds the research results and conclusions of the relevant scholars at home and abroad on the relationship between population dependency ratio, population age structure and savings. On the basis of the classical western economics and demography theories such as household savings theory, this paper selects the population dependency ratio and resident savings rate of China from 1990 to 2009 as the data source of this empirical study, based on VAR model. Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship among children's dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio and resident savings rate. The results of empirical analysis show that both child dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio are the Granger causes of the resident savings rate. At the same time, we can know from the pulse analysis and variance decomposition analysis that, in the long run, The influence of children's dependency ratio on resident savings rate is weak, while that of old age's dependency ratio on resident's saving rate is becoming stronger. The last chapters of this paper mainly expound the impact of the change of population dependency ratio on Japan's economy and society, as well as the measures taken by the Japanese government to deal with the population problem. To provide some useful policy suggestions for the future population and economic development policy of our country.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24;F832.22

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