中国外汇储备成本的测度与控制研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 04:14

本文选题：外汇储备　切入点：经济成本　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：外汇储备一直是国际金融界的热门话题,特别是中国的外汇储备。近年来,中国的外汇储备逐年增长,自2000年至2013年12月,我国外汇储备年均复合增长率达到27.3%,而同样是外汇储备大国的日本在此期间的增长幅度只有10.28%,中国外汇储备年均复合增长率大幅高于日本。据中国人民银行数据,至2013年12月底,中国的外汇储备已达到3.82万亿美元,是同一时间日本外汇储备(1.26万亿美元)的3倍,如此巨额的外汇储备在满足对外贸易需求、应对国际收支平衡、提升我国综合国力和国际地位的同时,也增加了我国持有外汇储备的成本。本文在以往文献的基础上,综合分析了中国外汇储备的总成本,包括经济成本和社会成本。经济成本主要有机会成本、冲销成本和资本损失,社会成本主要是缺口成本和通货膨胀成本。本文通过测度发现,中国的外汇储备面临着巨额的机会成本、冲销成本和资本损失。通过外汇储备缺口成本的分析,认为弥补社保缺口可以促进当期消费,扩大内需,从而促进经济增长。外汇储备的通货膨胀成本主要是由于人们的适应性预期,对通货膨胀形成惯性,即使央行采取措施进行冲销,这种影响依然存在。在详细分析中国外汇储备成本的基础上,本文提出了控制外汇储备成本的有效措施：优化外汇储备币种结构,降低美元资产比例,适当减少美国国债比例,增加美国股票比例,降低外汇储备机会成本和资本损失；优化冲销手段,降低外汇储备冲销成本；利用外汇储备弥补社保基金缺口；推进人民币国际化,降低外汇储备规模,减少外汇储备总成本。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserves have always been a hot topic in the international financial world, especially China's foreign exchange reserves.In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased year by year, from 2000 to 2013,The average annual compound growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves is 27.30.Japan, which is also a big foreign exchange reserve country, has only 10.28 percent growth rate in this period. The average annual compound growth rate of China's foreign exchange reserves is much higher than that of Japan's.According to the people's Bank of China, by the end of December 2013, China's foreign exchange reserves had reached 3.82 trillion US dollars, three times the amount of Japan's foreign exchange reserves of 1.26 trillion US dollars at the same time.In response to the balance of international payments and to enhance our comprehensive national strength and international status, it also increases the cost of holding foreign exchange reserves.Based on the previous literatures, this paper analyzes the total cost of China's foreign exchange reserve, including economic cost and social cost.Economic costs are mainly opportunity costs, sterilisation costs and capital losses, while social costs are mainly gap costs and inflation costs.This paper finds that China's foreign exchange reserves face huge opportunity costs, sterilisation costs and capital losses.Through the analysis of the cost of foreign exchange reserve gap, it is concluded that making up the social security gap can promote current consumption, expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.The inflation costs of foreign exchange reserves are largely due to adaptive expectations and inertia to inflation, an effect that persists even if the central bank takes measures to write off.Based on the detailed analysis of the cost of China's foreign exchange reserves, this paper puts forward some effective measures to control the cost of foreign exchange reserves: optimizing the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion of US dollar assets, appropriately reducing the proportion of US Treasury bonds, and increasing the proportion of American stocks.Reduce the opportunity cost and capital loss of foreign exchange reserve; optimize the sterilisation method to reduce the cost of sterilizing foreign exchange reserve; use foreign exchange reserve to make up the gap of social security fund; promote the internationalization of RMB, reduce the scale of foreign exchange reserve and reduce the total cost of foreign exchange reserve.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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