影子银行对商业银行稳定性系数影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 06:21

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：商业银行体系　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着金融创新的不断加速,影子银行作为金融创新的重要产物,其规模迅速扩张,已成为我国金融市场中发挥重要功能的有机构成。但是,影子银行存在期限错配和高杠杆的特征,蕴含的内在风险较大,容易对金融系统造成冲击。目前商业银行在我国金融体系中仍占有绝对优势,商业银行体系如果出现稳定性恶化状况,必然会祸及整个金融体系。因此,研究影子银行对我国银行体系稳定性的影响,对于维护我国金融体系的稳定和国民经济的发展都起到重大意义。本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。借鉴国内外许多专家的的理论成果,综合分析各种影响因素。试图更加系统地深入探讨影子银行规模发展的不同阶段对银行体系稳定性的双重影响。首先,搜集2002-2012年的中国影子银行规模的数据,然后计算商业银行体系的稳定性系数,将其作为稳定性的衡量指标,搜集固定资产投资增长率等控制变量的年度数据,使用OLS方法,建立非线性回归模型,试图探求影子银行的发展与银行体系稳定性之间的关系。研究表明,两者存在阈值效应。只有当影子银行规模在阈值以下时,其规模扩大才会对银行体系的稳定性产生正面作用。两者之间并非单一的线性关系。最后,本文指出可以从以下几个方面采取改善措施：加深金融服务理念,赋予民间金融机构合法地位。建立针对影子银行的监管体系,加强对其运营活动的监管,提高信息透明度,降低影子银行的杠杆率。加快利率市场化进程,使利率在资金流动和国民经济调节中充分体现其杠杆作用。加大正规信贷渠道对民营企业的放贷,创新经营方式,从而降低其对影子银行资金渠道的依赖。从房地产等风险源头上加强信贷管理。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of financial innovation, shadow banking, as an important product of financial innovation, has expanded rapidly and has become an organic component of the financial market in our country.However, the shadow bank has the characteristics of term mismatch and high leverage, which has a high inherent risk and can easily impact the financial system.At present, commercial banks still have absolute advantages in our country's financial system. If the stability of commercial banking system deteriorates, it will inevitably harm the whole financial system.Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence of shadow banking on the stability of China's banking system and to maintain the stability of China's financial system and the development of the national economy.Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are used in this paper.Draw lessons from the theoretical results of many experts at home and abroad, comprehensive analysis of various factors.This paper attempts to explore the dual effects of different stages of shadow banking scale development on the stability of the banking system.First of all, we collect data on the size of shadow banking in China from 2002 to 2012, then calculate the stability coefficient of the commercial banking system as a measure of stability, collect annual data on control variables such as the growth rate of fixed asset investment.Using OLS method, a nonlinear regression model is established to explore the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the stability of banking system.The results show that there is a threshold effect between them.Only when the size of shadow banks is below the threshold can the stability of the banking system be positively affected.There is not a single linear relationship between the two.Finally, this paper points out that the following measures can be taken: deepening the concept of financial services and giving legal status to private financial institutions.To establish a regulatory system for shadow banks, strengthen the supervision of their operations, improve the transparency of information, and reduce the leverage ratio of shadow banks.Speed up the interest rate marketization process, so that the interest rate in the flow of funds and national economic regulation fully reflect its leverage role.Increase the formal credit channel to the private enterprise loan, the innovation management way, thus reduces its to shadow bank fund channel dependence.Strengthen credit management from real estate and other risk sources.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3

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