美元走弱对中国出口贸易结构的影响：2002-2012

发布时间：2018-04-06 03:39

本文选题：美元走弱　切入点：出口贸易结构　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文针对在美元在新世纪下的弱势调整所导致的我国出口贸易结构调整这一焦点问题,试图探究美元走弱对我国各出口行业的影响方向、影响程度,并为我国的外贸出口改革提供一些基础性的建议。本文主要分为两部分,首先选取2002年至2012年这十年的美元走弱周期作为参考期,以TC指数考察中国出口工业制成品贸易竞争力在美元走弱的外部环境下的变化结构和演变历程,然后基于SITC2位数据对具体各类贸易商品所受汇率波动冲击的方向和程度进行估计。最终结论主要有以下几点：第一,通过对我国工业制成品出口的38个科目的横向及纵向比较,可以看出在整个美元贬值的周期中,美元走弱对我国的出口制成品的比较优势呈现出的逐渐向资本密集型产品的转型态势起到了促进作用。另外,本文还发现钉住一篮子世界货币的我国的出口制成品的出口竞争力比钉住美元时高,说明汇率改革对我国的出口制成品的比较优势提高有促进作用。第二,美国汇率走弱对于我国资本与技术密集型产品对北美地区的出口具有抑制作用,美国汇率走弱对于我国资本密集型产品的向除去美国以外的国家及地区、尤其是亚洲发达国家及地区出口具有促进作用。第三,美国汇率走弱对于我国劳动密集型产品对大多数国家及地区的出口具有抑制作用,美元走弱迫使中国的传统出口制成品项目出口受到大量缩水,遇到瓶颈。主要由于美元走弱使得我国的劳动密集型产品的国际价格相对于东南亚国家的价格更加昂贵,使得中国出口商品丧失了巨大的价格优势。最后,本文总结研究结论并提出相应的政策建议。即发展新兴国家市场,开辟外贸出口新格局、采取多项刺激国内大众群体消费的措施,由原先的以出口和投资拉动经济的格局彻底改变。积极稳妥地整合劳动密集型产业的国内生产与对外贸易,扩大资本与技术密集型产品出口。与包括美国在内的国际社会进行商贸谈判,解决汇率争端,防止贸易保护主义重燃,切实加强多边、双边贸易合作,促进贸易合作的区域一体化。同时继续稳步完善我国人民币汇率制度才是我国在出口外贸结构的必由之路。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the focus of the adjustment of China's export trade structure caused by the weak adjustment of US dollar in the new century, this paper attempts to explore the direction and extent of the impact of the weakening of US dollar on China's export industries.And for China's foreign trade export reform to provide some basic suggestions.This paper is divided into two parts. Firstly, this paper selects the 10-year period of dollar weakening from 2002 to 2012 as the reference period, and examines the changing structure and evolution process of China's export manufactured goods trade competitiveness under the external environment of dollar weakness with TC index.Then based on the SITC2 bit data, the direction and extent of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on specific trade commodities are estimated.The final conclusions are as follows: first, through the horizontal and vertical comparison of 38 subjects of our country's exports of manufactured products, we can see that during the entire period of depreciation of the US dollar,The weakening of the US dollar has promoted the transition from the comparative advantage of China's manufactured goods to capital-intensive products.In addition, this paper also finds that the export competitiveness of China's manufactured goods pegged to a basket of world currencies is higher than that of the US dollar, indicating that the exchange rate reform can promote the comparative advantage of China's export manufactured goods.Second, the weakening of the United States exchange rate has a restraining effect on the exports of China's capital-and technology-intensive products to North America, and the weakening of the US exchange rate is conducive to the direction of China's capital-intensive products to countries and regions other than the United States.In particular, Asian developed countries and regional exports play a role in promoting.Third, the weak exchange rate of the United States has a restraining effect on the export of labor-intensive products to the majority of countries and regions. The weakening of the US dollar has forced China's exports of manufactured goods to be greatly reduced and met with bottlenecks.Mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar, the international price of China's labor-intensive products is more expensive than that of Southeast Asian countries, which makes Chinese exports lose a huge price advantage.Finally, this paper summarizes the conclusions of the study and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.That is, to develop the market of emerging countries, to open up a new pattern of foreign trade and export, to take many measures to stimulate domestic mass consumption, and to completely change the original pattern of stimulating the economy by export and investment.Actively and steadily integrate domestic production and foreign trade of labor-intensive industries and expand exports of capital and technology-intensive products.Trade negotiations with the international community, including the United States, to resolve currency disputes, prevent the resurgence of trade protectionism, strengthen multilateral and bilateral trade cooperation, and promote regional integration of trade cooperation.At the same time, to continue to steadily improve China's RMB exchange rate system is the only way for China to export foreign trade structure.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.62;F837.12

【共引文献】