信贷量经济效应的期限结构研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 19:46

本文选题：信贷期限结构 + 短期贷款　；参考：《经济研究》2012年01期

【摘要】：银行信贷和经济波动的关系一直是理论和实务界关注的焦点,过去国内的研究大多仅从信贷总量层面入手而忽视了结构效应,这不利于厘清信贷在经济中的作用机理。在将贷款按期限划分为短期贷款和中长期贷款后,本文通过应用一个小型DSGE模型,发现短期贷款对经济增长虽有短期的促进作用,但却形成通货膨胀压力;而中长期贷款对经济增长有长期的促进作用,同时对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。以我国1998-2010年的宏观数据为样本进行的FAVAR检验支持了上述观点。该结论一方面意味着信贷政策及其监管应加强对信贷期限结构的关注,另一方面结合我国近年来中长期贷款比重大幅上升的客观事实,也从一个新的视角解释了货币信贷加速扩张的同时,价格水平却较为稳定的"中国货币之谜"。
[Abstract]:The relationship between bank credit and economic fluctuation has always been the focus of attention in theory and practice. In the past, most of the domestic studies only started from the level of total credit and ignored the structural effect, which is not conducive to clarify the mechanism of credit in the economy.After dividing loans into short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans by term, this paper applies a small DSGE model to find that short-term loans can promote economic growth in the short term, but form inflationary pressure.Medium-and-long-term loans have a long-term effect on economic growth and a certain suppression of inflation.The FAVAR test based on the macro data from 1998 to 2010 supports this view.This conclusion, on the one hand, means that the credit policy and its supervision should pay more attention to the term structure of credit, on the other hand, in the light of the fact that the proportion of medium and long-term loans in China has increased substantially in recent years,At the same time, it explains the puzzle of Chinese currency while the price level is relatively stable.
【作者单位】：南京大学商学院;中国银行江苏省分行;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“居民收入来源结构优化研究”(批准号11AJL003) 国家自然科学基金“我国的通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀动态机制研究”(71103082)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F832.4

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