基于主成分分析我国外汇储备影响因素研究
发布时间:2018-04-14 11:39
本文选题:外汇储备 + 主成分分析 ; 参考:《山东大学》2014年硕士论文
【摘要】:随着我国外汇储备的持续增长,有关外汇储备影响因素的研究引起了国内学者的广泛关注,然而对于各经济因素对我国外汇储备的影响却有着不同的定论。本文从国内经济发展、国际收支变动、我国的经济制度三方面入手,以1994年我国外汇结售汇制度和汇率制度改革以来到2012年的经济数据为基础,选取了国内生产总值、进出口净额、实际利用外资额、国家外债余额、人民币广义货币供应量、美元对人民币年均汇价、我国的人口规模、进出口总额、证券投资差额9个影响指标,运用主成分分析法,建立了以标准化外汇储备为因变量,标准化国内生产总值、进出口净额、实际利用外资额、国家外债余额、人民币广义货币供应量、美元对人民币汇价、我国的人口规模、进出口总额、证券投资差额为自变量的标准化回归模型。经过分析发现,我国外汇储备增长是多方面原因共同作用的结果,其中制度原因是我国外汇储备增长的深层次原因,除汇率对我国外汇储备增长具有反向冲击外,其他因素都对我国外汇储备具有正向促进作用且进出口差额、人口规模、证券投资差额对我国外汇储备增长的作用并不明显。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, the research on the influencing factors of foreign exchange reserves has attracted extensive attention of domestic scholars. However, there are different conclusions on the influence of various economic factors on China's foreign exchange reserves.This paper starts with the domestic economic development, the change of the balance of payments and the economic system of our country. Based on the economic data from the reform of the foreign exchange settlement and sale system and the exchange rate system in 1994 to the year 2012, this paper selects the gross domestic product (GDP).Net imports and exports, the amount of foreign capital actually utilized, the balance of foreign debt of the state, the broad money supply of RMB, the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB, the population size of our country, the total volume of imports and exports, and the difference in securities investment.By using principal component analysis, we have established standardized foreign exchange reserves as dependent variables, standardized gross domestic product, net imports and exports, actual amount of foreign capital utilized, balance of foreign debt of the country, broad money supply of RMB, exchange rate of US dollar to RMB,The standardized regression model of population size, total import and export volume and securities investment difference is independent variable in our country.Through the analysis, it is found that the growth of China's foreign exchange reserve is the result of the joint action of various reasons, among which the institutional reason is the deep-seated reason of the growth of China's foreign exchange reserve, except that the exchange rate has a reverse impact on the growth of China's foreign exchange reserve.All other factors have a positive effect on China's foreign exchange reserve and the difference between import and export population size and securities investment difference has no obvious effect on the growth of China's foreign exchange reserve.
【学位授予单位】:山东大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F832.6
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