中国的“三元悖论”政策目标组合选择及其影响

发布时间：2018-04-14 22:32

本文选题：三元悖论 + 外汇储备　；参考：《经济评论》2012年04期

【摘要】：本文构建了"三元悖论"政策目标指数,并探讨了中国的宏观经济管理策略对经济稳定性的影响。研究发现,中国以汇率高度稳定作为首要目标,并追求适度的货币政策独立性,而谨慎追求金融开放,并积累了巨额外汇储备。这种策略的影响包括:(1)较高的货币政策独立性对降低产出波动率有积极作用,因持有外汇储备的间接影响使得汇率高度稳定政策也显著降低了产出波动率,金融开放同样也起到了降低产出波动率的作用;(2)积累巨额外汇储备与追求汇率高度稳定政策间的交互影响使得汇率稳定成为维持物价稳定的消极因素,货币政策独立性将降低国内通货膨胀波动率而积累过多的外汇储备却恶化这种影响,金融开放将增加物价波动性。文章凸显出过度追求人民币名义汇率稳定的弊端。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs the "ternary paradox" policy target index, and discusses the influence of China's macroeconomic management strategy on economic stability.It is found that China regards high stability of exchange rate as its primary goal and pursues moderate monetary policy independence, while cautiously pursuing financial openness and accumulating huge foreign exchange reserves.The effects of this strategy include: (1) higher monetary policy independence has a positive effect on reducing output volatility, because the indirect effect of holding foreign exchange reserves makes the exchange rate highly stable policy significantly lower the output volatility.Financial openness also plays a role in reducing output volatility.) the interaction between the accumulation of huge foreign exchange reserves and the pursuit of high exchange rate stability makes exchange rate stability a negative factor in maintaining price stability.Monetary policy independence will reduce domestic inflation volatility while accumulating excessive foreign exchange reserves will worsen this effect. Financial liberalization will increase price volatility.The article highlights the excessive pursuit of RMB nominal exchange rate stability shortcomings.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学经济与贸易学院;
【分类号】：F832.6

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