人民币国际化的宏观风险研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 21:11

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 宏观风险　；参考：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的高速增长,中国在世界经济体系中扮演越来越重要的角色,人民币的国际地位也在逐步提升,人民币国际化已经成为必然趋势。自2009年跨境贸易人民币结算试点推出以来,人民币跨境使用量急剧上升。截至2013年底,全年跨境贸易人民币结算业务累计为4.63万亿元,较上年的2.94万亿元同比大增57%。2013年上海自由贸易区的建成,又将人民币国际化进程推上了一个新台阶。然而人民币国际化的进程依然任重而道远,同时也不可避免地蕴藏着各种不可预期的风险。文章选择人民币国际化进程中所面临的宏观风险作为研究对象是一个重要的视角,既是对中国经济和金融发展战略的长远考虑,也是对全球化背景下人民币顺利实现国际化的前瞻思考。本文首先对货币国际化的宏观风险及其影响路径进行一般性理论分析,在此基础上分析人民币国际化所面临的宏观风险及其成因。随后,以资本账户开放为视角,在一个包含资本账户开放度、跨境贸易人民币结算、汇率以及经济增长的框架内,采用实证分析与理论分析相结合的方法探讨人民币国际化对宏观经济金融稳定的冲击。研究结果提示,跨境贸易人民币结算与资本账户开放具有高度相关性；跨境贸易人民币结算加剧了人民币汇率的波动,同时增强了资本账户开放与汇率波动之间的关联性；资本账户开放在长期内会对宏观经济增长产生一定的负面效应。文章还构建了包含资本账户开放度、产出、物价水平、汇率以及货币供应量的向量自回归模型,分别分析人民币国际化对货币政策调控价格和产出的影响,研究发现人民币国际化对货币政策的价格和产出效应均具有一定的抑制作用。最后,文章在借鉴美元和日元国际化的风险控制经验以及教训的基础之上,结合人民币国际化所面临的宏观风险,提出一系列具有较强现实针对性和可操作性的风险控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy, China plays a more and more important role in the world economic system, and the international status of RMB is gradually rising, and the internationalization of RMB has become an inevitable trend.Cross-border use of renminbi has risen sharply since the launch of a pilot settlement of renminbi for cross-border trade in 2009.By the end of 2013, RMB settlement of cross-border trade totaled 4.63 trillion yuan, up 57% from 2.94 trillion yuan last year. The completion of Shanghai Free Trade area in 2013 has pushed the internationalization of RMB to a new level.However, the internationalization of RMB still has a long way to go.It is an important angle of view to choose the macro risk in the process of RMB internationalization as the research object, which is a long-term consideration of China's economic and financial development strategy.It is also the prospective thinking on the internationalization of RMB under the background of globalization.This paper firstly makes a general theoretical analysis of the macro risks and their influence paths of currency internationalization, and then analyzes the macro risks faced by RMB internationalization and its causes.Then, from the perspective of capital account openness, within a framework that includes capital account openness, cross-border trade renminbi settlement, exchange rate, and economic growth,This paper discusses the impact of RMB internationalization on macroeconomic and financial stability by combining empirical analysis with theoretical analysis.The results suggest that the RMB settlement of cross-border trade is highly correlated with the opening of the capital account, and the RMB settlement of cross-border trade intensifies the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and strengthens the correlation between the opening of the capital account and the volatility of the exchange rate.Capital account opening in the long-term will have a certain negative effect on macro-economic growth.The paper also constructs a vector autoregressive model including capital account openness, output, price level, exchange rate and money supply to analyze the impact of RMB internationalization on the price and output of monetary policy.It is found that RMB internationalization can inhibit the price and output effects of monetary policy.Finally, based on the experience and lessons of risk control in the internationalization of US dollar and Japanese yen, combined with the macro risk faced by RMB internationalization, this paper puts forward a series of risk control measures with strong practical pertinence and maneuverability.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】