FDI、人民币汇率与中国劳动生产率关系分析

发布时间：2018-04-17 20:42

本文选题：FDI + 人民币汇率　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以来,以跨国公司为载体的外商直接投资(FDI)在全球范围内迅猛发展,它已经成为经济全球化和世界经济增长的主要动力之一,各国政府日益关注FDI对提升本国经济效率的影响。目前,FDI对中国经济效率的影响如何衡量,汇率变化又会如何影响FDI的流入,是人们广泛关注的问题。本文建立在国内外对国际资本流动效应、FDI技术溢出效应和巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应等相关文献研究的基础上,结合中国的产业结构特点,采用理论和实证相结合的研究方法,定性和定量分析相结合,力求对FDI、人民币汇率与中国劳动生产率的关系作出理论上的解释和实证上的支持。主要内容包括以下几个方面：首先,通过对我国经济指标的实际观察,分析FDI在提升我国劳动生产率中的重要作用,以及人民币汇率和劳动生产率的变化关系。其次,运用面板实证分析方法,利用2004-2011年我国制造业和服务业的分行业数据,建立FDI的溢出效应模型,将FDI作为经济生产的要素内生在模型里,量化分析FDI对我国制造业和服务业各行业劳动生产率的差异性影响。然后,运用时间序列实证分析方法,在VAR模型的基础上,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,研究总体制造业与服务业FDI与劳动生产率和人民币汇率变化的动态关系,并对巴拉萨萨,缪尔森效应在中国的适用性进行检验。本文分析结果表明,人民币汇率贬值,会促进FDI向制造业的流入,减少FDI对服务业的流入。整体来看服务业FDI对服务业劳动生产率具有显著的正向技术溢出效应,而制造业FDI的溢出效应不显著,将这一结果与之前分行业的面板研究结果结合起来,可以从服务业和制造业的内部产业结构特征中对此现象做出合理的解释。目前是我国经济结构优化升级的关键时期,为继续保持较高的增长效率,中国必须因势利导地充分利用FDI的资本效应和外溢效应。在制定开放政策时,应注意对不同行业情况进行区别对待,切实提高中国的经济效率。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980s, foreign direct investment (FDI) with multinational corporations as the carrier has developed rapidly in the world, and it has become one of the main driving forces of economic globalization and world economic growth.Governments are increasingly concerned about the impact of FDI on improving their economic efficiency.At present, how to measure the impact of FDI on China's economic efficiency and how the exchange rate change will affect the inflow of FDI is a widely concerned issue.This paper is based on the research of FDI technology spillover effect and Barraza Samuelson effect at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of China's industrial structure, and adopts a theoretical and empirical research method.Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper tries to provide theoretical and empirical support for the relationship between FDI, RMB exchange rate and China's labor productivity.The main contents include the following aspects: first of all, through the actual observation of China's economic indicators, this paper analyzes the important role of FDI in improving China's labor productivity, as well as the relationship between RMB exchange rate and labor productivity.Secondly, using panel empirical analysis method, using the data of manufacturing and service industries in China from 2004 to 2011, we establish the spillover effect model of FDI, and take FDI as the factor of economic production endogenously in the model.Quantitative analysis of the impact of FDI on the labor productivity of manufacturing and service industries in China.Then, using time series empirical analysis method, on the basis of VAR model, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function,This paper studies the dynamic relationship between total manufacturing and service FDI, labor productivity and RMB exchange rate, and tests the applicability of Balasasa and Murson effect in China.The result of this paper shows that the depreciation of RMB exchange rate will promote the inflow of FDI to manufacturing industry and reduce the inflow of FDI to service industry.On the whole, FDI of service industry has significant positive technology spillover effect on labor productivity of service industry, but the spillover effect of manufacturing FDI is not significant.This phenomenon can be explained reasonably from the internal industrial structure characteristics of service industry and manufacturing industry.In order to maintain higher growth efficiency, China must make full use of the capital effect and spillover effect of FDI according to the situation.In formulating the open policy, we should pay attention to different industries and improve China's economic efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.22

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