人口年龄结构变动对金融市场的影响

发布时间：2018-04-20 20:59

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 金融市场　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济社会的不断发展,人口年龄结构一直处于变化进程中,这是每个国家都要经历的,尤其是中国、印度这样的新兴市场国家,这些国家的人口结构正发生显著的变化。上世纪日本经济崛起和东亚经济奇迹发生后,很多学者开始研究人口年龄结构在经济增长中起的作用,并取得了丰富的研究成果。前人研究表明,人口年龄结构会通过消费、储蓄、投资、进出口、劳动力供给等一系列经济变量对经济系统产生影响。但前人的研究并不完善,人口年龄结构变动对金融市场的影响没有得到相应的研究。为此,本文在研习前人相关研究的基础上,试图探究人口年龄结构对银行、股市、债券等金融市场产生的影响,以及这些影响是通过何种途径产生的。本文首先系统介绍国内外学者关于人口年龄结构对经济增长、金融资产选择以及金融市场影响的研究。在此基础上构建了人口年龄结构对金融市场的影响机制。然后,本文采用来自世界银行的金融、人口与经济数据,通过对面板数据的实证分析得出了人口年龄结构对金融市场的影响。分析主要分为两部分：第一部分是人口年龄结构影响金融市场的基准模型分析和稳健性检验,得出不同年龄段人口对各金融市场的影响；第二部分是分析在不同收入、经济发展水平下,人口年龄结构对各金融市场的影响情况。通过分析本文发现,入口年龄结构会对金融各市场产生不同的影响,中年人口会对股市产生积极影响,而老年人口则对股市产生消极影响,对债券市场产生积极影响。这意味着当一国人口年龄结构处在成年型时,不仅能为经济发展提供人口红利,而且也为股市创造了良好的发展机会。而在老龄化的过程中,老年人口比重增加会有益于债券市场的发展而对股市产生一定负面影响。此外,研究还发现人口年龄结构对金融市场的影响在高收入国家中比中低收入国家中显著。而需要注意的是,有利的人口年龄结构并不意味着必然会对相关金融市场带来积极影响,这只会为金融市场的发展提供一个较好的潜力和机遇,而其能否真正推动相关金融市场的发展,则取决于该国是否有良好的经济运行环境、完善的金融市场以及相关的经济政策。因此,政府应积极推动金融市场改革,不断完善金融制度和社会保障制度,为发挥良好人口年龄结构的积极影响创造良好的环境；同时政府应适当调节计划生育政策以及退休制度以削弱人口快速老龄化带来的冲击。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development, the population age structure has been in the process of change, which every country has to experience, especially China, India and other emerging market countries, these countries' demographic structure is changing significantly. After the economic rise of Japan and the economic miracle of East Asia in the last century, many scholars began to study the role of population age structure in economic growth, and obtained rich research results. Previous studies have shown that the age structure of the population will affect the economic system through a series of economic variables such as consumption, savings, investment, import and export, labor supply and so on. However, previous studies are not perfect, and the influence of the change of population age structure on the financial market has not been studied. Therefore, on the basis of previous studies, this paper attempts to explore the impact of the age structure of the population on banks, stock markets, bonds and other financial markets, as well as the ways through which these effects are generated. Firstly, this paper systematically introduces the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the influence of population age structure on economic growth, financial asset selection and financial market. On this basis, the influence mechanism of population age structure on financial market is constructed. Then, using the financial, demographic and economic data from the World Bank, the paper analyzes the impact of population age structure on the financial market through the empirical analysis of panel data. The analysis is mainly divided into two parts: the first part is the benchmark model analysis and robustness test of the impact of population age structure on the financial market, and the second part is the analysis of the impact of different age groups on the financial markets. Under the level of economic development, the impact of the age structure of the population on the various financial markets. Through the analysis of this paper, it is found that the age structure of import will have different effects on the financial markets, the middle-aged will have a positive impact on the stock market, while the elderly will have a negative impact on the stock market and a positive impact on the bond market. This means that when the age structure of a country's population is adult, it can not only provide a demographic dividend for economic development, but also create good development opportunities for the stock market. In the process of aging, the increase of the proportion of the elderly will benefit the development of the bond market and have a certain negative impact on the stock market. In addition, the effect of age structure on financial markets is more significant in high-income countries than in low-and-middle-income countries. It should be noted, however, that a favourable age structure of the population does not necessarily have a positive impact on the relevant financial markets, which only provides a better potential and opportunity for the development of financial markets, Whether it can really promote the development of relevant financial markets depends on whether the country has a good economic operating environment, perfect financial markets and relevant economic policies. Therefore, the government should actively promote the reform of the financial market, constantly improve the financial system and social security system, and create a good environment for giving full play to the positive impact of the good age structure of the population; At the same time, the government should adjust the family planning policy and retirement system to reduce the impact of rapid aging population.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5;C92-05

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