我国金融业发展对城镇化作用的演变——基于2003-2012年截面数据的空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 21:31

本文选题：金融业发展 + 城镇化　；参考：《江西财经大学学报》2015年05期

【摘要】：利用2003—2012年31个省、市、自治区的截面数据,通过LM检验选定2003—2012年所适用的模型,分析十年间我国金融业发展对城镇化作用的演变情况。实证结果显示,十年间金融业发展对城镇化的作用呈现出不显著—增高—不显著—降低—增高的演变趋势。整体上看金融业发展对城镇化是有正向促进作用的,且在长期上该作用是逐渐增大的。但这一作用易受宏观经济波动和宏观政策调整等外界客观因素的影响而出现短暂的不显著。基于以上分析,提出应在城镇基础设施建设、城镇产业发展、农村转移人口市民化三个方面加大金融的支持力度,强化金融业发展对城镇化的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the cross section data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2003 to 2012, this paper analyzes the evolution of financial industry development on urbanization in China during the past ten years by using LM test to select a suitable model for 2003-2012. The empirical results show that the effect of financial development on urbanization in the past ten years is not significant-increasing-not significant-decreasing-increasing. Overall, the development of the financial industry has a positive effect on urbanization, and in the long run, the role is gradually increasing. However, it is easy to be affected by external objective factors such as macroeconomic fluctuation and macroeconomic policy adjustment. Based on the above analysis, it is suggested that the financial support should be strengthened in three aspects: the construction of urban infrastructure, the development of urban industry, and the urbanization of rural population transfer, so as to strengthen the role of financial development in promoting urbanization.
【作者单位】：南昌大学管理学院;南昌大学中部经济社会发展研究中心;南昌工程学院经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD104) 国家自然科学基金项目(71263037) “长江经济带背景下江西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合发展模式探究”江西省社会科学界联合会资助项目(14YJ36)
【分类号】：F832;F299.21

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