影响个人投资者在越南股票市场决策的行为因素分析：一种基于行为金融理论的方法

发布时间：2018-04-26 01:26

本文选题：个人投资者 + 心理因素　；参考：《上海大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：证券市场在国民经济发展中正在发挥着日益重要的作用。证券市场的变化取决于投资者的决定。为解释市场的运行，有效市场理论认为投资者是理性的经济人并且不受感情控制。但是，行为理论派的研究却给出了相反的证据，认为投资者不是理性人，他们还受到很多心理因素的冲击，这些心理因素可能对他们的投资态度和行为有着深刻的影响。这就意味着，当心情好的时候，投资者可能会变得更加乐观；但是，当心情不好时，他们可能会变得更加悲观。因此，研究各种影响行为的因素来预测投资者的行为变得越来越重要。为了验证证券市场上投资者各种心理因素的存在，本论文以越南股票市场为例，从三个方面进行了研究论证。首先，作者验证了个人投资者的不一贯性或者假设认为个人投资者是按照前景理论来行动的非理性投资者；第二，验证普遍心理因素的存在，它影响到投资战略以及按照人口学分类的投资者差异；第三，基于人口学因素来验证投资者随时接受风险的能力。对于第一个研究，作者通过描述统计的方法，运用比例描述来评价具有相同概率的不同决策情况的差异。对于第二个研究，作者用克伦巴赫alpha系数来验证模型内各因素的可信性，然后运用探索性因子分析法，，用确定性因素分析来评价各研究概念间的汇集和分别的价值，并运用Logistic回归的方法来评价各因素对投资战略的影响，最后用方差分析来评价人口学因素（包括年龄、性别、婚姻状况、教育背景、收入水平、投资经历等）对投资者决策的影响。对于第三个研究，作者使用卡方、Cremer V非参数分析法来评价它对投资者随时接受风险能力的影响。本论文的调查研究主要通过关系网络进行实施。来自胡志明市和河内市证券交易所422位投资者的研究结果显示：(i)在越南的个人投资者为非理性的投资者；(ii)个人投资者的普遍心理（包括过分自信、乐观、从众、风险和悲观等）会影响到投资者的策略；(iii)有一些人口学因素影响投资者的心理；(iv)基于人口学因素进行分组的不同投资者群体，其随时接受风险的程度有明显差别。论文最后也指出了此研究的局限之处，给出了未来研究的方向，并为越南证券市场的投资者和管理者提供了一些政策性建议。本论文的结果对于了解越南证券市场及有经济转型的发展中国家的个人投资者的行为具有一定的参考价值和研究意义。
[Abstract]:The securities market is playing an increasingly important role in the development of national economy. The changes in the securities market depend on the decision of the investor. In order to explain the operation of the market, the efficient market theory holds that the investor is a rational economic person and is not controlled by emotion. However, the research of behavioral theory school gives the contrary evidence, that investors are not rational people, they are also affected by many psychological factors, these psychological factors may have a profound impact on their investment attitude and behavior. This means that investors may become more optimistic when they are in a good mood, but they may become more pessimistic when they are in a bad mood. Therefore, it is more and more important to study the factors influencing behavior to predict the behavior of investors. In order to verify the existence of various psychological factors of investors in the securities market, this paper takes Vietnam stock market as an example and conducts research and demonstration from three aspects. First, the author verifies the inconsistency of individual investors or hypothesizes that individual investors are irrational investors acting according to prospect theory; second, verifies the existence of universal psychological factors. It affects investment strategy and investor differences according to demographic classification. Third, it verifies investors' ability to accept risk at any time based on demographic factors. For the first study, the author uses the method of descriptive statistics to evaluate the differences of different decision making situations with the same probability. For the second study, the author uses the Krenbach alpha coefficient to verify the credibility of the various factors in the model, and then uses exploratory factor analysis to evaluate the value of the aggregation and separation of the various research concepts by deterministic factor analysis. Logistic regression method was used to evaluate the impact of various factors on investment strategy. Finally, the demographic factors (including age, sex, marital status, educational background, income level) were evaluated by ANOVA. Investment experience, etc.) the impact on investors' decision-making. For the third study, the authors use chiffon Cremer V nonparametric analysis to evaluate its impact on investors' ability to accept risk at any time. The investigation and research of this paper are mainly carried out through the relational network. The results of a study of 422 investors from Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi Stock exchanges show that the individual investors in Vietnam are irrational investors (including overconfidence, optimism, conformity, etc.) Risk and pessimism will affect the strategy of investors. (there are some demographic factors affecting the psychology of investors.) different groups of investors grouped based on demographic factors have significant differences in the degree of acceptance of risk at any time. Finally, the paper points out the limitations of this study, gives the direction of future research, and provides some policy suggestions for investors and managers of Vietnam's securities market. The results of this paper have some reference value and research significance for understanding the behavior of individual investors in Vietnam's securities market and developing countries with economic transition.
【学位授予单位】：上海大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.51

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