汇率变动对不同产业贸易的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 10:25

本文选题：人民币实际有效汇率 + 高新技术行业　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年,在日元、卢布、泰铢纷纷贬值的情况下,人民币兑美元却持续升值,年升值幅度达到3%,是2012年升值幅度的三倍之多。2014年1月,人民币升值幅度更是屡破记录。但是从2014年2月以来,人民币汇率却一反常态的持续下跌。截至3月20日,人民币即期汇率相较1月14日的历史高点贬值幅度达2.99%。有学者认为这是央行有意引导,人民币贬值实则可控；也有学者认为这是人民币汇率弹性增强的表现,未来仍有贬值可能。无论是哪种市场猜测是真,我们都可以判断未来汇率的波动性将变的更大、波动程度也将变得更不可测。影响一个行业对外贸易的因素有很多,例如：产品的自身竞争实力、海外市场需求、替代品行业供需情况、税负、补贴、汇率等。从购买力平价的视角来看,汇率反映了国与国之间价格的变化,汇率的变动将直接影响到两国商品的相对价格,最后也终将反映到一国进出口额的变化上。一般来讲,本币升值,本国贸易品的竞争力下降,本国出口减小,进口增加,汇率变动对行业进出口影响亦如此。但是汇率变动对不同行业的影响程度是否相同,作用的时间是否一样有待具体分析。本文通过运用VAR模型考察了2005年汇率制度改革以后人民币实际有效汇率对纺织服装行业进出口和高新技术行业进出口的影响。实证结果证明：人民币实际有效汇率变动对纺织服装行业和高新技术行业出口的冲击方向相同,但是冲击程度不同、冲击快慢也不尽相同。具体来说,劳动密集型的纺织服装行业进出口对汇率的敏感性较高,高新技术行业进出口对汇率的敏感性较低。最后,结合两个行业的对外贸易特点和未来发展需求,从宏观层面、产业层面和企业层面三个角度分别提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2013, as the yen, rouble and baht depreciated, the yuan continued to appreciate against the dollar, rising by 3 times a year, more than three times the rate in 2012. In January 2014, the yuan rose to a record level. But since February 2014, the yuan has been falling uncharacteristically. As of March 20, the spot value of the yuan fell by 2.99 from its record high on January 14. Some scholars believe that this is the intention of the central bank to guide, but the depreciation of the renminbi is actually controllable; others believe that this is an increase in the exchange rate elasticity of the yuan, and that there is still a possibility of depreciation in the future. Whatever the market speculation is true, we can judge that the volatility of the future exchange rate will become greater and the volatility will become more unpredictable. There are many factors that influence the foreign trade of an industry, such as the competitive strength of products, the demand of overseas market, the supply and demand of substitute industry, tax burden, subsidy, exchange rate and so on. From the point of view of purchasing power parity, the exchange rate reflects the change of price between countries. The change of exchange rate will directly affect the relative price of goods between the two countries, and finally, it will also reflect the change of import and export value of one country. Generally speaking, with the appreciation of the local currency, the competitiveness of domestic trade products decreases, domestic exports decrease, imports increase, and so does the exchange rate change on the import and export of the industry. But whether the influence of exchange rate changes on different industries is the same, and whether the time of action is the same, needs to be analyzed in detail. In this paper, the VAR model is used to investigate the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the import and export of textile and garment industry and the import and export of high-tech industry after the exchange rate system reform in 2005. The empirical results show that the real effective exchange rate changes of RMB have the same impact direction on textile and garment industry and high-tech industry export, but the impact degree is different, the impact speed is also different. Specifically, the labor-intensive textile and clothing industry is more sensitive to the exchange rate, and the high-tech industry is less sensitive to the exchange rate. Finally, according to the characteristics of foreign trade and the future development demand of the two industries, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the macro level, the industrial level and the enterprise level.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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