基于需求动机的金砖国家外汇储备影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 16:23

本文选题：金砖国家 + 需求动机　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：新兴市场国家在20世纪90年代以来的相当长的一段时间里,经历了令世界为之瞩目的国际资本涌入浪潮,作为新兴市场国家代表的金砖国家也不例外,与此同时伴随的是金砖国家(除南非以外)外汇储备规模的增长,尤其是2000年之后金砖四国外汇储备急剧增长,已远远超过正常需求。然而,外汇储备是一把“双刃剑”,而并非多多益善,外汇储备能带来一些好处,比如维持国家金融稳定、提高投资信心、促进经济发展等,与此同时,过高的外汇储备规模也会给国民经济运行及发展带来风险和损失,比如通货膨胀风险、汇率及利率风险、冲销成本与机会成本损失以及失去国际组织提供的优惠贷款等等。因此,研究金砖国家(除南非以外)外汇储备快速增长并大规模囤积的缘由,提高对外汇储备的管理水平,从而使外汇储备的增长速度和规模得到一定的控制,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文首先尝试从需求动机的角度来梳理相关的外汇储备影响因素理论,提出一个基于需求动机的综合理论框架；然后通过分析金砖四国外汇储备的规模特征得出金砖四国外汇储备超额以及增速很快的结论并详尽地分析了高额外汇储备存在的各种风险,并基于这种现状,立足于金砖四国的经济及金融特点挖掘造成其近年来大规模囤积外汇储备共同影响因素；其次,在实证检验方面,用相关性分析证实了金砖四国近年来的外汇储备规模确实存在共同的趋势,基于此,本文从需求动机的视角选取影响其外汇储备的共同影响因素并运用面板数据模型进行实证检验,实证结果表明,攀比动机显然是促进金砖四国外汇储备增长的共同的影响因素,但每个国家的最主要的影响因素又具有比较明显的国别差异,对促进四国外汇储备影响最大的需求动机如下：巴西—交易动机和预防动机；俄罗斯—攀比动机和交易动机；印度—攀比动机和预防动机；中国—发展动机和攀比动机。最后,针对金砖四国外汇储备成因并尝试从需求动机的角度提出了缓解外汇储备规模增长的政策建议,如优化本国产业结构,提高外资利用率,缓解外资流入规模；深化经济金融合作,增强抵御金融危机能力。另外,可通过加强外汇储备管理,合理利用外汇储备来直接减少已然高额的外汇储备存量。
[Abstract]:For a long time since 1990s, emerging market countries have experienced the worldwide influx of international capital. The BRICs countries as the representative of emerging market countries are no exception. At the same time, the growth of the foreign exchange reserves of the BRIC countries (except South Africa), especially the BRICs after 2000. However, foreign exchange reserves are a "double-edged sword", but not more than good. Foreign exchange reserves can bring some benefits, such as maintaining national financial stability, improving investment confidence, and promoting economic development. At the same time, the high foreign exchange reserve scale will also run to the national economy. And development brings risks and losses, such as inflation risk, exchange rate and interest rate risk, cost of cancellation and loss of opportunity cost and loss of preferential loans provided by international organizations. Therefore, the study of the reasons for the rapid growth and mass hoarding of the BRIC countries (except South Africa) is to improve the management of foreign exchange reserves. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to control the growth rate and scale of foreign exchange reserves. This paper first tries to sort out the related factors of foreign exchange reserve from the perspective of demand motivation, and put forward a comprehensive theoretical framework based on demand motivation, and then analyzes the foreign exchange reserves of the BRIC countries. The scale characteristic draws the conclusion that the foreign exchange reserves of the BRIC countries exceed the foreign exchange reserves and the fast growth rate, and analyses the various risks of the high foreign exchange reserves in detail. Based on this situation, it is based on the economic and financial characteristics of the BRIC countries to excavate the common factors affecting the stockpiling of foreign exchange reserves on a large scale in recent years. Secondly, in the empirical test. On the other hand, the correlation analysis confirms that the foreign exchange reserves of the BRIC countries have a common trend in recent years. Based on this, this paper selects the common influence factors which affect their foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of demand motivation and empirically tests the use of panel data model. The empirical results show that the motivation of the climbing is obviously promoting the BRIC four foreign countries. The common influencing factors of the growth of foreign exchange reserves are common, but the most important factors of each country have obvious national differences. The motivation to promote the foreign exchange reserve of the four countries is as follows: Brazil trading motivation and preventive motivation; Russian climbing motivation and motivation; India - climbing motivation and preventive motivation China - development motivation and comparison motivation. Finally, we put forward some policy suggestions to alleviate the growth of foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of demand motivation, such as optimizing the domestic industrial structure, improving the utilization rate of foreign capital, alleviating the scale of foreign capital inflow, deepening the economic and financial cooperation and strengthening the financial crisis. In addition, by strengthening foreign exchange reserve management and making rational use of foreign exchange reserves, we can directly reduce the stock of already high foreign exchange reserves.

【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.6

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