货币冲击下我国农产品价格超调机制的研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 19:50

本文选题：货币冲击 + 粮价超调模型　；参考：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：农业是国民经济的基础,农产品价格的波动关乎经济全局,如何稳定农产品价格是关乎到我国经济发展大局的重要课题。本文首先回顾我国货币供给和农产品价格的历史情况,发现同一货币冲击下的农产品价格比工业品价格反应更迅速且波动更为剧烈。其次以农产品价格粘性为前提,建立货币供给冲击下的粮价超调模型,来解释农产品价格超调的动态路径。然后,根据我国货币供应量和农产品价格数据,通过统计模型科学定量地研究货币冲击下的粮价超调现象。研究表明：从长期来看,货币供给增加1%会导致农产品价格提升0.23%,工业品价格提升0.11%,长期的货币中性不成立；从短期来看,同一货币冲击下农产品价格呈现出比工业品价格波动更剧烈的“超调”特征,但货币冲击对农产品价格波动的解释程度只有8%,表明货币冲击不是直接引起我国农产品价格上涨的主要原因。在文章的后半部分,结合粮价超调模型中提出的两条传导路径,通过DAG方法分析变量间的同期因果关系,深入探讨农产品价格的超调机制。研究发现：货币供应量短期内不会有太频繁的变动,而且由于时滞、货币冲击对农产品价格的直接影响未来得及显现,货币冲击主要以通过预期进而影响农产品价格的间接路径为传导,此时通过合理引导预期是稳定农产品价格的有效途径。研究结论的意义在于：由于农产品价格长期货币非中性和短期超调,一方面可以更有效率地制定货币政策,使货币政策更多地倾向于农产品价格,合理控制我国货币规模；另一方面,考虑到通胀预期的传导作用,货币当局应合理引导公众预期,同时规范农产品市场,减少对价格的冲击。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the foundation of national economy, the fluctuation of agricultural product price is related to the overall situation of economy, and how to stabilize the price of agricultural product is an important subject related to the overall situation of economic development of our country. This paper first reviews the historical situation of money supply and agricultural product price in China, and finds that the price of agricultural product under the same currency shock is more rapid and volatile than that of industrial product price. Secondly, based on the price stickiness of agricultural products, a food price overshoot model under the impact of money supply is established to explain the dynamic path of agricultural product price overshoot. Then, according to the data of money supply and agricultural product price in China, the phenomenon of food price overshoot under currency shock is studied quantitatively by statistical model. The study shows that, in the long run, an increase of 1% in the money supply will lead to a rise of 0.23% in the price of agricultural products, 0.11% in the price of industrial products, and no long-term monetary neutrality; in the short run, Under the same currency shock, the price of agricultural products shows a more drastic "overshoot" characteristic than the price fluctuation of industrial products. But the explanation of monetary shock to agricultural product price fluctuation is only 8, which indicates that monetary shock is not the main cause of agricultural product price rise in China. In the second half of the paper, combining the two conduction paths proposed in the food price overshoot model, the paper analyzes the cause and effect relationship between variables by DAG method, and probes into the overshoot mechanism of agricultural product price. The study found that the money supply does not change too frequently in the short term, and because of the delay, the direct impact of monetary shocks on the prices of agricultural products does not appear in time. The main transmission of monetary shock is the indirect path of influencing agricultural product price through expectation, and at this time, it is an effective way to stabilize agricultural product price by reasonably guiding expectation. The significance of the study lies in: because the price of agricultural products is non-neutral and short-term overshoot, on the one hand, monetary policy can be formulated more efficiently, so that monetary policy can be more inclined to agricultural product price, and the monetary scale of our country can be controlled reasonably; On the other hand, considering the transmission effect of inflation expectations, monetary authorities should reasonably guide public expectations, regulate the agricultural product market and reduce the impact on prices.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.7;F822

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