人口结构能解释经常账户平衡吗

发布时间：2018-05-05 08:07

本文选题：人口结构效应 + 经常账户平衡　；参考：《金融研究》2012年05期

【摘要】：在全球经济失衡态势下,本文试图发现外部经济失衡背后的深层次人口结构因素。本文以38个亚洲经济体1989～2008年面板数据,运用系统广义矩方法考察了人口结构对经常账户的解释能力,并用固定效应模型和混合数据等方法及变量变换进行了稳健性检验。我们发现,在经常账户强惯性的基础上,人口结构效应能在一定程度上解释经常账户或国际资本流动,且老年人口结构效应比少儿人口结构效应更加显著。老年化经济体对于经常账户逆差存在依赖,经常账户可以被理解为储蓄的国际缓存池和中转地以应对人口结构的变动。因此,世界经济体应尽量避免同周期的老年化,以保证经济的"梯队"发展和资源跨代交换,同时,对于全球经济失衡也应有一定的容忍度。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of global economic imbalance, this paper tries to find out the deep demographic factors behind the external economic imbalance. Based on the panel data of 38 Asian economies from 1989 to 2008, this paper investigates the interpretation ability of population structure to the current account by using the generalized moment method of the system, and tests the robustness of the population structure with the methods of fixed effect model and mixed data and variable transformation. We find that, on the basis of strong current account inertia, population structure effect can explain current account or international capital flow to some extent, and the effect of old population structure is more significant than that of children. Aging economies are dependent on current account deficits, which can be understood as an international cache pool of savings and transit places to cope with demographic changes. Therefore, the world economy should avoid the aging of the same cycle as far as possible, so as to ensure the echelon development of the economy and the intergenerational exchange of resources. At the same time, there should be some tolerance to the global economic imbalance.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目《中国经常账户均衡研究》(批准号:10YJC790414) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目《全球经济再平衡背景下经常账户适度性与逆转冲击效应研究》(批准号:11JCC128) 北京市属高等学校人才强教计划(2010~2012)的资助
【分类号】：C924.1;F831.2;F224

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