中日韩自贸区建立对我国吸引FDI的影响模拟分析

发布时间：2018-05-06 18:59

本文选题：中日韩自由贸易区 + 引力模型　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自二十一世纪起，中国、日本和韩国开始积极推进国际区域经济合作。作为东亚的三个经济大国，中日韩自由贸易区的建立是三国间实现共同利益的根本要求，其目的在于达到以市场机制为动力，实现国际化的专业分工和资源的合理配置，提高成员国的经济福利和国际竞争力的最终目标。自由贸易区取消成员国之间的贸易壁垒和障碍，完成贸易的自由化，促进了国与国之间的经济往来，实现了区域内各国的协调发展。中日韩自贸区建立会产生巨大的经济效应，包括贸易效应、投资效应和产业效应等，本文着重于研究中日韩自贸区建立对我国产生的直接投资效应。 2011年中日韩区域贸易从1999年的1300多亿美元上升至2011年的6900多亿，其中日本和中国在全球对外直接投资中分别位居第二位和第五位，但是中日韩三国的相互投资额却只占对外投资额的6%，区域投资不足制约着东亚区域经济的发展。对外直接投资是维系东亚生产网络的重要纽带，促进各国生产领域合作；同时，，区域内直接投资可以帮助东亚国家摆脱对西方国家的强烈依赖性。对我国而言，吸引FDI流入是我国实现“走出去，引进来”的重要一环，可以促进我国资源优化配置和国际资本的自由流动。直接投资效应作为自贸区经济效应的重要组成部分，有助于了解我国在中日韩自贸区建立中所扮演的角色，对于我国在推进中日韩自贸区建立的进程中制定政策、预防风险等方面具有重要指导作用。本文首先介绍了区域经济一体化相关理论，为实证分析提供理论依据；其次，本文简述中日韩自贸区的背景、现状和特点，说明了中日韩自贸区建立的现实基础；再次，对影响中日韩自贸区建立的因素进行分析，包括三国间经贸密切度、政治因素和大国因素三方面；然后，本文介绍了我国FDI和中日韩三国间相互投资的现状，分析了影响我国外商直接投资的决定因素；之后，本文以区域经济一体化理论相关理论作为实证的理论依据，假设中日韩自贸区于2020年建立，采用引力模型，定量和定性分析相结合，引入了对FDI流入产生影响的几个环境因子进行实证分析，判断哪些环境因子对我国吸引FDI具有决定性作用，然后通过模拟分析预测了中日韩自贸区的建立对我国吸引区域内外商投资的影响；最后根据实证分析所得，本文针对我国参与自贸区建设提供了可行建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, China, Japan and South Korea have actively promoted international regional economic cooperation. As the three major economic powers in East Asia, the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade area is the fundamental requirement for the realization of common interests among the three countries. Its purpose is to achieve the internationalization of professional division of labor and rational allocation of resources based on the market mechanism. The ultimate goal of improving the economic welfare and international competitiveness of member countries. Free trade zone removes trade barriers and barriers among member countries, completes trade liberalization, promotes economic exchanges between countries, and realizes coordinated development of countries in the region. The establishment of China, Japan and Korea Free Trade Zone will have enormous economic effects, including trade effect, investment effect and industrial effect. This paper focuses on the direct investment effect of the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone on China. In 2011, the regional trade between China, Japan and South Korea rose from more than US $13 billion in 1999 to more than 690 billion in 2011, with Japan and China ranking second and fifth in global FDI respectively. However, the mutual investment of China, Japan and South Korea only accounts for 6% of the foreign investment, and the insufficient regional investment restricts the development of the regional economy in East Asia. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important link to maintain East Asian production network and promote cooperation between countries in the field of production. At the same time, intraregional direct investment can help East Asian countries get rid of their strong dependence on Western countries. For our country, attracting the inflow of FDI is an important part of "going out, bringing in", which can promote the optimal allocation of resources and the free flow of international capital in our country. As an important part of the free trade zone economic effect, the direct investment effect is helpful to understand the role of our country in the establishment of the free trade zone between China, Japan and Korea, and to formulate policies in the process of promoting the establishment of the free trade zone between China, Japan and South Korea. Prevention of risk has an important guiding role. This paper first introduces the relevant theories of regional economic integration, which provides the theoretical basis for empirical analysis; secondly, this paper briefly describes the background, current situation and characteristics of China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone, and explains the realistic basis of the establishment of China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the establishment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Zone, including the economic and trade closeness between the three countries, political factors and big country factors, and then introduces the current situation of China's FDI and the mutual investment between China, Japan and South Korea. After analyzing the determinants of foreign direct investment in China, this paper takes the theory of regional economic integration as the theoretical basis, and assumes that China, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone was established in 2020, using gravity model. Combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, this paper introduces several environmental factors that have an impact on the inflow of FDI, and determines which environmental factors play a decisive role in attracting FDI in China. Then the influence of the establishment of China, Japan and Korea free trade zone on attracting foreign investment in China is predicted by simulation analysis. Finally, according to the empirical analysis, this paper provides some feasible suggestions for China to participate in the construction of free trade zone.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

【参考文献】