论人民币国际化的两难选择

发布时间：2018-05-10 23:00

本文选题：中国经济崛起 + 人民币国际化　；参考：《世界经济研究》2012年11期

【摘要】：中国依靠引进外资成功实现了资本转移型经济崛起。尽管从长期来看,中国经济的崛起要求人民币成为国际货币,但是,就短期而言,作为人民币国际化必要条件的资本项目开放,有可能通过对汇率的影响,削弱中国经济崛起的潜力,从而削弱人民币国际化的基础。鉴于这一可能性,中国不得不推后资本项目的开放时间,这一选择必然会延迟人民币国际化进程。以上矛盾构成了中国在经济崛起和人民币国际化问题上面临的两难选择。以上矛盾也反映在人民银行的人民币国际化政策上。一方面,鉴于经济崛起对人民币国际化的要求,人民银行正在积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算;但是,另一方面,为了保持汇率稳定和顺利推进资本转移型经济崛起,人民银行又不得不严格限制资本项下的人民币交易。这一政策表明,中国推进的人民币国际化战略是渐进式、局部国际化战略,这一战略决定了人民币国际化是一个渐进的过程。
[Abstract]:Relying on the introduction of foreign capital, China has successfully realized the rise of the capital transfer economy. Although, in the long run, the rise of China's economy requires the renminbi to become an international currency, in the short term, the opening of the capital account, which is a necessary condition for the internationalization of the renminbi, is likely to be achieved through the influence on the exchange rate. Weaken the potential of China's economic rise, thereby weakening the basis for the internationalization of the renminbi. Given this possibility, China has had to push back the opening hours of its capital account, an option that is bound to delay the internationalisation of its currency. These contradictions constitute the dilemma of China's economic rise and RMB internationalization. These contradictions are also reflected in the RMB internationalization policy of the people's Bank of China. On the one hand, in view of the requirements of the economic rise for the internationalization of the renminbi, the people's Bank of China is actively promoting the settlement of cross-border trade in renminbi; on the other hand, in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and smoothly promote the rise of the capital-transfer economy, The people's Bank of China (PBOC) has had to strictly restrict renminbi transactions under capital account. This policy indicates that the RMB internationalization strategy promoted by China is a gradual and partial internationalization strategy, which determines that RMB internationalization is a gradual process.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院世界经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(批准号:12AZD049)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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