基于我国省际资本流动的“卢卡斯悖论”研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 14:19

本文选题：资本流动 + 卢卡斯悖论　；参考：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,随着我国经济体制的不断完善和发展,我国经济总量实现迅速增长,人民收入水平显著提高。然而,在经济迅速腾飞的过程中,我国经济中存在的问题也逐渐显现出来,地区之间、城乡之间的差距不断扩大,贫富差距日趋明显。根据新古典增长理论,资本在国际间的流动是从发达国家向欠发达国家流动,按照这一逻辑,资本在一国内部地区之间的流动也应该从较为发达的地区向较不发达的地区流动。然而,针对我国省际之间资本流动的研究结果表明,改革开放至今,我国省际之间的资本流动情况并不符合新古典增长理论的预期,甚至与新古典理论的结论截然相反。总的来说,我国省际之间的资本流动主要还是从比较落后的中西部地区向比较发达的东部地区流动,这种资本流动的“卢卡斯悖论”现象值得深思。为了更深入的研究我国省际之间资本流动的规律和影响因素,本文采用定性分析和定量研究相结合的方法,利用“物随钱走”的原理衡量省际资本流动的规模和方向,通过对现有资本流动问题研究的总结,建立面板数据模型考察我国省际资本流动的“卢卡斯悖论”现象。研究结果表明：1、我国区域间确实存在资本从欠发达地区向较发达地区流动的“卢卡斯悖论”现象。2、人力资本、金融相关比率、贸易开放程度和市场化程度均对资本的这种流动产生显著影响,与现有理论研究不同的是,全要素生产率、金融发展效率和经济规模对资本流动的影响并不如预期明显。因此,本文认为在中国的特殊国情下,政府应该完善相关措施,进一步推动科技发展,提高人力资本的利用效率,加快实现新型工业化转型,合理引导资本的跨区域流动,最终实现区域经济的平衡发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous improvement and development of China's economic system, the total economic volume of our country has achieved rapid growth, and the level of people's income has increased significantly. However, in the process of rapid economic development, the existing problems in the economy of our country also gradually appear, the gap between regions, between urban and rural areas continues to expand, the gap between rich and poor is becoming more and more obvious. According to the neoclassical growth theory, the international capital flows from the developed countries to the less developed countries. According to this logic, the capital flows between the regions within a country should also flow from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. However, the results of the research on inter-provincial capital flow in China show that the inter-provincial capital flow in China does not meet the expectations of neoclassical growth theory, or even contrary to the conclusion of neo-classical theory. In general, the capital flow between provinces in China is mainly from the backward central and western regions to the more developed eastern regions, and the phenomenon of "Lucas paradox" of capital flow is worth pondering. In order to study the law and influencing factors of capital flow between provinces in China, this paper adopts the method of qualitative analysis and quantitative research, and measures the scale and direction of capital flow between provinces by the principle of "material with money". Based on the summary of the current research on capital flow, a panel data model is established to investigate the phenomenon of "Lucas paradox" of capital flow between provinces in China. The results of the study show that there is a "Lucas paradox" phenomenon of capital flowing from underdeveloped regions to more developed regions in China, the ratio of human capital and financial correlation. The degree of trade openness and marketization have a significant impact on the capital flow. Different from the existing theoretical studies, the total factor productivity, financial development efficiency and economic scale do not affect the capital flow as expected. Therefore, under the special national conditions of China, the government should improve the relevant measures, further promote the development of science and technology, improve the efficiency of human capital utilization, accelerate the realization of the new industrialization transformation, and reasonably guide the cross-regional flow of capital. Finally realize the balanced development of regional economy.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.7

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