人民币国际化背景下两岸四地货币合作研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 07:20

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 货币合作　；参考：《中央财经大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,两岸四地经济保持高速增长。在坚持“一国两制”的原则下,两岸四地经贸往来和资本流动日益密切,经济和资本的融合程度逐步加深,已提升到制度建设层面。但是,在两岸四地经济和金融融合程度不断加深的同时,两岸四地经济圈内四种货币共存的弊端逐渐显现:一方面,两岸四地经济圈四种货币共存,区域内贸易结算和资本流动必须进行货币兑换,从而增加了两岸四地贸易往来和资本流动的成本,降低了贸易往来和资本流动效率,在很大程度上限制了区域贸易自由化和区域经济一体化的进一步发展和深化;另一方面,四地汇率制度安排存在差异,增加了汇率波动风险,进而削弱了经济圈应对外部冲击的能力。两岸四地四种货币并存现象的主要弊端源自于制度性缺陷、价格信号紊乱和国际游资的冲击,具有内生不稳定性,而这种内生性不稳定将会引起区域金融体系不稳定性。在经济和金融全球化背景下,由于各经济体的发展不均衡,单个国家或地区经济能力有限,仅依靠国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行(World Bank)和发达国家的外在援助来消除金融危机的影响是远远不够的,各地区货币当局逐渐认识到区域货币合作的重要意义。人民币国际化战略实施为两岸四地货币合作创造了新的契机和条件。中国内地政府于2005年实施汇率制度改革,并于2008年之后后,推出了人民币跨境贸易结算、签署双边货币互换协议、发展香港人民币离岸市场、推广境外人民币直接交易以及跨境投资人民币结算、实施沪港通及近期人民币加入SDR等一系列战略措施。同时,面对全球金融危机的冲击,中国采取了保持币值稳定的应对措施,极大地提高了人民币在国际上的信誉度,为人民币国际化进程的推进打下了良好的信誉基础和经济基础。在人民币国际化背景下,研究两岸四地货币合作问题,不仅具有前瞻性,同时具有重要现实意义和政策意义。人民币国际化为人民币成为区域主导货币创造了条件。本文将人民币国际化问题与两岸四地货币合作问题相结合,通过纳入内生性约束的动态最优决策分析,为两岸四地货币合作模式和路径选择提供了新的研究方向。按照此思路,本文针对该问题,主要从以下四个方面展开分析研究:(1)两岸四地货币合作现状;(2)人民币国际化对两岸四地货币合作的影响;(3)两岸四地经济基本面是否已满足货币合作的条件;(4)两岸四地货币合作的模式和路径的选择。基于最优货币区理论,本文在梳理现有研究文献基础上,综合运用现代经济学的统计分析、实证分析等方法,将人民币国际化问题与两岸四地货币合作问题结合研究,密切围绕我国的实际国情,注重理论的可解释性,思路对策的合理性,提出了两岸四地货币合作模式与路径。本文研究得出以下三点结论:(一)通过梳理两岸四地货币合作的进程可知,两岸四地处于货币合作的初级层次,即两岸四地货币合作仅仅处于货币合作问题的协商、协调以至共同行动阶段;其次,基于单一标准的最优货币区理论,通过选取经济发展水平、经济一体化、金融一体化和财政政策趋同性四个层面变量,本文分析当前两岸四地在各个层面的趋同性和差异性,静态的考察两岸四地货币合作的经济基础。统计分析得出,在经济发展水平、经济一体化和财政政策趋同性三个层面,两岸四地货币合作成本相对较低,在金融一体化层面,两岸四地货币合作成本相对较高,但是从四个层面发展趋势分析,各经济体在四个层面的趋同性呈现动态趋同态势,两岸四地货币合作的长期成本相对较低。因此,相对于当前两岸四地现实经济基础,两岸四地货币合作发展滞后,两岸四地有必要进一步加强区域货币合作。(二)在前文现实统计分析基础上,本文进一步实证研究两岸四地货币合作的经济可行性。一方面,本文研究两岸四地的经济周期同步性,并对经济波动进行分解,实证研究四类经济冲击对称性问题。经研究得出,两岸四地各经济体在长期内存在共同趋势,在短期内存在共同周期,即其经济一体化程度较高,据此可知,两岸四地经济周期在样本期间具有同步性,符合构建最优货币区的基础条件;通过采用结构向量自回归模型,分析经济冲击对称性,研究得出,两岸四地各经济体在货币冲击方面具有对称性,在外部冲击、供给冲击以及需求冲击方面尚不具有对称性,即两岸四地各经济体的经济冲击尚未具有完全的对称性。因此,两岸四地经济圈暂时不适合构建最优货币区;另一方面,前文将经济冲击对称性标准视为外生给定,依据历史数据检验,判断区域货币合作的可行性,尽管该方法有助于明确当前两岸四地货币合作的经济基础,但是此方法忽视了衡量标准与货币联盟之间的内生性,即若当前国家间的经济相关性与贸易一体化呈正相关关系,则虽然一国在加入最优货币区前不满足加入最优货币区标准,但是其在加入后可促进其满足标准(frankel和rose,1998),降低了研究结论的稳健性。基于此,在前文分析的基础上,本文实证检验了内地与港澳台地区货币合作是否存在内生性。经研究得出,中国内地与香港、澳门地区随着经济一体化程度的不断加深,经济周期趋同程度会不断提高,存在着最优货币区标准的内生性作用机制,三地适宜组建最优货币区,而台湾地区与其他三地不存在最优货币区的内生性作用机制,当前阶段不适宜组建最优货币区。综上所述,在人民币国际化背景下,中国内地、香港和澳门地区经济基础可以支持进一步加强货币合作,而台湾地区与其他地区存在较大差异性,当前进一步加强货币合作的成本较大,两岸四地货币合作应该分阶段、分层次展开。(三)本文在明确了两岸四地货币合作现状和现实经济基础之上,研究区域货币合作模式。一方面,在对当前区域货币合作模式进行辨析基础上,基于货币网络外部性和转换成本理论,构建简单数理模型,分析不同货币合作模式的福利效应。研究得出,在区域货币合作过程进程中,采用共同货币的福利水平明显要大于流通两种货币的福利水平,因而区域应采取加强货币合作,构建货币联盟,采用共同货币。在共同货币的选择方面,从成本最小化的角度考虑,由于货币存在“惰性”,先使用的货币具有先发优势,即当前处于流通使用的货币较尚未流动使用的货币拥有更大的流通网络,因此以前者作为共同货币较后者即创建新货币具有更高的福利水平,因此货币合作应选择一种现已使用的,且用户众多的货币作为区域货币合作的核心货币;另一方面,尽管人民币当前尚未实现自由兑换,但是人民币国际化进程加速推进,为人民币成为区域主导货币创造了潜在可能性,基于此,本文实证研究了人民币在香港、澳门和台湾的汇率安排中的动态作用。研究得出,人民币对香港、澳门和台湾地区的汇率安排中的影响显著,意味着人民币的隐性货币锚职能已经显现,即人民币正逐渐成为两岸四地区域主导货币。因此,尽管人民币尚未实现自由兑换,尚无法成为两岸四地官方货币锚,但是在人民币国际化背景下,人民币正逐渐成为区域核心货币,在两岸四地实施人民币主导的货币合作具有可行性。本文的创新点主要体现在以下三个方面:(一)在研究视角方面,关于两岸四地货币合作的现有文献研究主要依据最优货币区理论,对两岸四地实施货币合作的现实经济基础进行分析,判断货币合作的经济可行性,并以此为基础,借鉴当前国际成功区域货币合作的实践经验,研究两岸四地货币合作模式及路径的选择,较少关注人民币国际化对两岸四地货币合作的动态影响。然而,货币国际化和区域货币合作两者是相辅相成、相互促进的,人民币国际化为人民币成为主导货币创造了可能,为两岸四地货币合作提供新的契机和条件。本文把人民币国际化问题与区域货币合作问题结合分析,通过纳入内生性约束的动态最优决策分析,研究两岸四地货币合作问题,为两岸四地货币合作模式和路径选择提供了新的研究方向。(二)在研究内容方面,本文基于现有文献研究,进行了补充和完善,主要体现在以下三个方面:第一,现有文献一般从一个维度单独分析两岸四地货币合作的经济可行性,降低了研究结论的稳健性,本文在现实经济统计分析的基础上,从静态经济冲击对称性和动态内生性两个维度,综合判断两岸四地货币合作的经济可行性,弥补了以往研究中的不足;第二,在两岸四地经济圈的经济基本面因素分析方面,本文采用经济周期同步性与经济冲击对称性两个核心指标,分析两岸四地经济圈的经济基本面因素;第三,本文将人民币国际化与区域货币合作问题相结合,动态分析人民币货币区构建可行性,丰富了当前研究内容。(三)在研究方法方面,考虑到制度变迁在两岸四地经济发展中发挥了重大作用,两岸四地经济发展过程中存在结构性变化。传统的固定参数模型的参数的估计值仅仅反应了研究样本期间的平均水平,不能反映动态变化,因此无法反映此类经济结构的时变效应,时变参数研究方法具有更好的适用性和说服力。因此,本文选择具备时变参数的状态空间模型,实证研究两岸四地人民币货币区构建的可行性,在研究方法上弥补了以往研究的不足。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economy of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits has maintained high growth. Under the principle of "one country, two systems", the economic and trade exchanges and capital flow of the four sides of the Straits are increasingly close, the degree of integration of economy and capital has gradually deepened and has been promoted to the level of system construction. However, while the economic and financial integration of the four places on both sides of the Straits is deepening, two The disadvantages of the coexistence of four currencies in the economic circle of the four banks of the shore gradually manifest. On the one hand, the four currencies of the four economic circles of the two sides coexist, and the intra regional trade settlement and capital flow must be exchanged in currency, thus increasing the cost of trade and capital flows of the two sides of the two sides of the Straits, reducing the trade and capital flow efficiency, to a large extent. It restricts the further development and deepening of regional trade liberalization and regional economic integration; on the other hand, there are differences in the arrangement of the four land exchange rate system, which increases the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and then weakens the ability of the economic circle to deal with the external shocks. The main drawbacks of the coexistence of the four currencies of the four places on both sides of the Straits originate from the institutional defects and the price letter. In the context of economic and financial globalization, in the context of economic and financial globalization, the economic capacity of individual countries or regions is limited, only by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (Worl). D Bank) and the external aid of the developed countries to eliminate the impact of the financial crisis is far from enough. The regional monetary authorities have gradually realized the importance of regional monetary cooperation. The implementation of the RMB internationalization strategy has created a new opportunity and conditions for the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. In 2005, the Chinese mainland government implemented the reform of the exchange rate system, After 2008, it launched the cross-border trade settlement of RMB, signed bilateral currency swap agreements, developed the offshore RMB market in Hongkong, popularized the direct exchange of RMB overseas and cross-border investment in RMB settlement, and implemented the strategic measures of the Shanghai port and the recent RMB entry to the SDR. Meanwhile, the impact of the global financial crisis on the global financial crisis. China has taken measures to maintain the stability of the currency, which greatly improved the credibility of the RMB in the world and laid a good foundation for the promotion of the internationalization of the RMB. In the context of RMB internationalization, it is not only forward-looking but also an important reality to study the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. Significance and policy significance. RMB internationalization has created conditions for RMB to become a regional dominant currency. This paper combines the problem of RMB internationalization with the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, and provides a new research direction for the mode and path selection of the four monetary cooperation on both sides of the Straits by incorporating the dynamic optimal decision analysis of endogenous constraints. According to this idea, this paper focuses on the following four aspects: (1) the current situation of four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits; (2) the influence of RMB internationalization on the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits; (3) whether the economic fundamentals of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have met the conditions of monetary cooperation; (4) the choice of the mode and path of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Based on the theory of optimal currency area, this paper, on the basis of combing the existing research literature, comprehensively using the statistical analysis and empirical analysis of modern economics, combines the problem of RMB internationalization with the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, and closely surrounds the actual conditions of China, pays more attention to the interpretability of the theory, and puts forward the reasonableness of the thinking and countermeasures. This paper draws the following three conclusions: (1) by combing the process of monetary cooperation between the four sides of the Taiwan Straits, the four places on both sides of the Straits are in the primary level of monetary cooperation, that is, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is only in the negotiation of the issue of monetary cooperation, and it is coordinated to the stage of common action; secondly, based on the cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the monetary cooperation. The single standard optimal monetary area theory, through the selection of four levels of economic development, economic integration, financial integration and fiscal policy convergence, this paper analyzes the convergence and differences of the four sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits at all levels, and statically examine the economic basis of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. The level of exhibition, economic integration and the convergence of fiscal policy are three levels, and the cost of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is relatively low. In the financial integration level, the cost of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is relatively high, but from the four aspects of the development trend analysis, the convergence of each economy in the four levels shows a dynamic convergence situation, and the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is the four currency of the two sides. The long-term cost of the work is relatively low. Therefore, compared with the current economic basis of four places on both sides of the Straits, the development of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is lagging behind, and the four places on both sides of the Straits need to further strengthen regional monetary cooperation. (two) on the basis of the previous practical statistical analysis, this paper further empirically studies the economic feasibility of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, on the one hand, This paper studies the synchronization of the economic cycle of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits, and decomposes the economic fluctuation and empirically studies the symmetry of the four types of economic shocks. It is concluded that there is a common trend in the four economies of the two sides of the Straits in the long term, and that there is a common cycle in the short term, that is, the degree of its economic integration is high. Accordingly, the economic cycle of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is known, and the economic cycle of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is four. During the sample period, it is synchrony and accords with the basic conditions for the construction of the best currency area. By using the structure vector autoregression model, the symmetry of the economic impact is analyzed. It is concluded that the four economies of the two sides of the Straits have symmetry in the currency impact, and the external shocks, supply punching and demand impact are not yet symmetrical, that is, both sides of the Taiwan Straits. The economic shocks of the four economies have not been fully symmetrical. Therefore, the four economic circles on both sides of the Straits are temporarily unsuitable for the construction of the optimal currency area; on the other hand, the previous article regards the standard of economic shock symmetry as an exogenous given, and the feasibility of judging regional monetary cooperation based on historical data, although this method helps to clarify the current two. The economic basis of the four currency cooperation on the shore, but this method ignores the endogeneity between the measure standard and the monetary union, that is, if the current economic correlation between countries is positively related to the trade integration, then a country does not meet the optimal currency area standard before joining the optimal currency area, but it can promote its completion after its accession. The foot standards (Frankel and rose, 1998) reduce the robustness of the research conclusions. Based on this, this paper empirically examines whether the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions have endogeneity of monetary cooperation. The study shows that the degree of economic integration increases with the deepening of economic integration and the degree of economic cycle convergence in the mainland of China and Hongkong and Macao. There will be a continuous improvement in the existence of the endogenous mechanism of the optimal monetary area standard, three suitable for the formation of the best currency area, while the Taiwan region and the other three places do not exist the optimal monetary area of the endogenous mechanism, the current stage is not suitable for the formation of the optimal currency area. To sum up, in the context of the internationalization of RMB, China, the mainland, Hongkong and Macao The regional economic basis can support further strengthening of monetary cooperation, while the Taiwan region and other regions have great differences, and the cost of further strengthening monetary cooperation is greater. The four land monetary cooperation between the two sides should be divided into stages and different levels. (three) this article has made clear the current situation of monetary cooperation and the realistic economic basis of the two banks and four areas. On the one hand, based on the analysis of the current regional monetary cooperation model, based on the theory of currency network externality and conversion cost, a simple mathematical model is constructed to analyze the welfare effect of the different monetary cooperation modes. The benefit level of the common currency is adopted in the process of regional monetary cooperation. It is obviously greater than the welfare level of the two currencies in circulation, so the region should strengthen monetary cooperation, build a monetary union and adopt a common currency. In the choice of common currency, from the point of view of the minimum cost, because of the "inertia" of the currency, the currency used first has the predominance, that is, the currency currently in circulation is more than the currency. The currency, which has not yet been used, has a larger circulation network, so the former has a higher level of welfare as a common currency than the latter, so monetary cooperation should choose a kind of now used and numerous currencies as the core currency of regional monetary cooperation; on the other hand, the renminbi is not yet true. Now it is freely convertible, but the process of RMB internationalization is accelerating to create potential possibility for the RMB to become a regional dominant currency. Based on this, this paper empirically studies the dynamic role of RMB in exchange rate arrangement in Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan. The study shows the effect of RMB on the exchange rate arrangement in Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan. Obviously, it means that the recessive monetary anchor function of the RMB has emerged, that is, the RMB is gradually becoming the four regional dominant currency in the two sides of the Straits. Therefore, although the RMB has not been freely convertible, it is still unable to be the official anchor of the four place on both sides of the Straits, but in the context of RMB internationalization, the RMB is gradually becoming the core currency of the region, in the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. The implementation of RMB led monetary cooperation in four areas is feasible. The innovation points of this article are mainly reflected in the following three aspects: (1) in the perspective of research, the existing literature research on the monetary cooperation between the four regions of the Taiwan Straits is based on the theory of the optimal currency area, and analyses the realistic economic basis of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits and judges the goods. On the basis of the economic feasibility of currency cooperation, based on the practical experience of the current international successful regional monetary cooperation, the paper studies the choice of the mode and path of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and less attention to the dynamic influence of RMB internationalization on the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. However, the internationalization of currency and the regional monetary cooperation are complementary, The mutual promotion of RMB internationalization has created the possibility for RMB to become the dominant currency and provides new opportunities and conditions for the four currency cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. This paper analyzes the issue of RMB internationalization and regional monetary cooperation, and studies the issue of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits by the dynamic optimal decision analysis of endogenous constraints and the study of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits. It provides a new research direction for the four monetary cooperation mode and path selection between the two sides. (two) in terms of the research content, this article is supplemented and perfected based on the existing literature research, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first, the existing literature generally analyzes the economic feasibility of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and reduces the economic feasibility of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the two sides of the Straits. The robustness of the research conclusions is based on two dimensions of static economic impact symmetry and dynamic endogenous nature on the basis of real economic statistical analysis. This paper makes a comprehensive judgment on the economic feasibility of the four monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits and makes up for the shortcomings of the previous research. Second, in the analysis of the economic fundamentals of the four economic circles on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, this article is adopted in this paper. With the two core indicators of economic cycle synchronization and economic impact symmetry, the economic fundamentals of the four economic circles on both sides of the Straits are analyzed. Third, this paper combines the internationalization of RMB and regional currency cooperation to dynamically analyze the feasibility of the construction of the RMB currency area and enrich the current research content. (three) consideration of the research methods. Institutional change has played a major role in the economic development of the four sides of the two sides of the Straits. Structural changes exist in the economic development of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. The estimated values of the parameters of the traditional fixed parameter model only reflect the average level of the sample during the study, and can not reflect the dynamic changes, because this can not reflect the time-varying effects of such economic structures. The variable parameter research method has better applicability and persuasiveness. Therefore, this paper selects the state space model with time-varying parameters, and empirically studies the feasibility of the construction of the RMB currency area of the four sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, and makes up for the shortcomings of the previous research.

【学位授予单位】：中央财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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