人民币跨境结算的影响因素和发展对策研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 11:37

本文选题：人民币 + 跨境结算　；参考：《苏州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国对外经济贸易的不断发展和综合国力的不断提升，人民币的国际地位也日益受到重视。最初在边境贸易中的频繁使用，，已经使得人民币成为周边地区的“硬通货”，而在席卷全球的金融危机后人民币依旧保持升值趋势，也为人民币走向国际创造了良好的条件。2009年7月跨境贸易人民币结算业务正式启动，我国终于迈出人民币国际化的第一步。至今4年多的时间里，人民币跨境结算业务进展顺利，无论是贸易结算还是直接投资规模均取得爆发式增长。虽然人民币现已成为全球十大最常用支付货币之一，但其作为世界支付货币在全球的使用比例仅1%左右，与美元、欧元等主要国际结算货币相比仍存在很大的差距，要进一步扩大人民币跨境结算业务的发展，实现人民币国际化的目标仍有很长的路要走。因此，有必要对人民币跨境结算的影响因素和发展对策进行深入研究。本文首先对人民币跨境结算业务的发展历程进行回顾，并就其发展现状以及对我国的影响进行分析总结。接下来从人民币的认可程度、人民币的流通程度以及相关配套措施的完善程度三个方面对人民币跨境结算业务的影响因素进行理论分析。为了对理论分析的结果进行验证，本文选取2010年10月至2013年9月的月度数据，运用VAR模型，通过ADF单位根检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解，从狭义上的人民币跨境结算角度出发，对影响跨境贸易人民币结算规模的因素进行实证研究，得出离岸人民币市场的发展状况、人民币汇率的变动以及我国贸易发展水平均会对人民币跨境结算规模造成影响，尤其是离岸人民币市场的发展状况，影响最为显著。最后，结合理论和实证研究的结论，就离岸人民币市场的发展、维持人民币汇率长期稳定、提高我国对外经济发展水平等方面，对进一步推进人民币跨境结算业务的发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's foreign trade and comprehensive national strength, the international status of RMB has been paid more and more attention. The initial frequent use of the renminbi in border trade has made the renminbi the "hard currency" of the surrounding region, while the renminbi has continued to appreciate after the global financial crisis. In July 2009, cross-border trade RMB settlement business officially started, China finally took the first step of RMB internationalization. For more than four years now, RMB cross-border settlement business has progressed smoothly, both trade settlement and direct investment scale has achieved explosive growth. Although the RMB has now become one of the top ten most commonly used payment currencies in the world, the proportion of its use in the world as a world payment currency is only about 1%, which is still quite different from that of the major international settlement currencies such as the US dollar, the euro and other major international settlement currencies. There is still a long way to go to achieve the goal of RMB internationalization to further expand the development of RMB cross-border settlement business. Therefore, it is necessary to further study the influencing factors and development countermeasures of RMB cross-border settlement. Firstly, this paper reviews the development of RMB cross-border settlement business, and analyzes and summarizes its development status and its impact on China. Then the paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors of RMB cross-border settlement business from three aspects: the degree of RMB recognition, the degree of RMB circulation and the degree of perfection of relevant supporting measures. In order to verify the results of theoretical analysis, this paper selects the monthly data from October 2010 to September 2013, uses VAR model, through ADF unit root test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, From the point of view of RMB cross-border settlement in a narrow sense, this paper makes an empirical study on the factors affecting the settlement scale of RMB in cross-border trade, and concludes the development of the offshore RMB market. The change of RMB exchange rate and the level of China's trade development will have an impact on the scale of cross-border settlement of RMB, especially the development of offshore RMB market. Finally, based on the conclusions of theoretical and empirical studies, this paper discusses the development of offshore RMB market, maintaining the long-term stability of RMB exchange rate, and improving the level of China's foreign economic development. To further promote the development of RMB cross-border settlement business policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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