中国影子银行体系风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 16:19

本文选题：影子银行 + 商业银行　；参考：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：当社会的信用需求超过商业银行的信用供给能力,脱离监管的影子银行应运而生。利率市场化改革带来的商业银行负债压力增大、贷存比居高不下、资本监管日趋严格等问题,使得商业银行的发展在短期倍受制衡；与此同时,非银行金融机构大量的资本有寻求自身价值的内在冲动,在这两方面的作用下,影子银行的规模在我国不断扩大。不可否认,影子银行对促进中国经济发展毫无疑问具有一定积极作用,但是其蕴涵的巨大风险更加不容忽视。从世界金融市场发展的视野来看,我们正在走过欧美发达国家曾经走过的路径,经历融资结构的调整带来的再平衡的过程。也许当这个度掌握得合适,经济的增长会更有质量；也许当这个度掌握得不合适,金融风险已经悄然潜伏。因此,影子银行的风险管理,实际上是一个崭新的课题,既有可以借鉴的海外经验,又有我国独有的国情,值得我们深入探讨,并从中寻找创新发展的方向与着力点。目前,国内学者对于影子银行的研究,已经取得一定的成果。在此基础上,我们进一步将影子银行分为商业银行中的影子银行,非银行金融机构中的影子银行以及非正规金融的影子银行三大类。由于非正规金融在我国的监管才刚刚起步,无法收集数据和资料,因此,我们将重点放在前两类影子银行的风险识别和控制,并提出对于影子银行风险管理的政策建议。本文的主要工作如下：第一,对中美影子银行的起源、定义、风险和监管进行了比较分析,总结了中国影子银行的基本特征,为中国影子银行的风险管理分析找准目标,并提供分析的实践案例和理论基础。第二,研究了商业银行中影子银行业务中的风险,着力于分析其中风险信号的识别,风险程度的测算和风险危害的控制,并通过量化分析,具体提出可能出现最大风险的地方。第三,分析了非银行金融机构影子银行业务中的风险,首先分析了主要的非银行金融机构中的影子银行业务及其风险类别,其次根据收集的数据具体测算了信托业务的风险,并由此探讨了影子银行风险爆发的危害程度,以及防控的着力点。第四,通过上文的分析和测算,提出优化监管体系的建议,从政府的金融改革方向、行业的资金套利冲动和企业的合规体系的建设三方面入手,对影子银行的风险进行全方面的监管,目的是将影子银行的风险化解在金融体系内部。总的来说,本文从分析我国影子银行自身的特点和问题出发,结合笔者二十多年的商业银行经营管理经验,来深入分析我国影子银行体系的风险控制理论和化解经验。我国需要通过循序渐进的宏观政策调整来逐步化解不同金融机构利用影子银行业务赚取利润的冲动,这其中,最重要的有两点,一是我国要推行市场化的利率制度,不可否认,我国近期已经开始试点利率市场化,并将原先固定的存贷款基准利率改为有上下限,可浮动的利率,但是与我国不断创新的金融产品和体系相比,还存在一定的差距,因此,只有利率水平能真正反映金融市场中对资金的需求,才能减少影子银行体系的风险。二是资产证券化的实施一定要在制度建设上解决金融创新与风险控制之间的矛盾。影子银行的未来出路必然是日益得到大家重视的资产证券化业务,但是不论何种金融创新,都必须是在风险可控的范围内进行的金融活动,而不能是照搬国外,要做到在风险上能收缩自如,才能将金融风险控制到最小,并且尽量切断与实体经济间的传递途径,让金融创新真正为经济社会的发展服务。
[Abstract]:When the credit demand of the society exceeds the credit supply capacity of the commercial bank, the shadow bank, which is divorced from supervision, arises at the historic moment. The debt pressure of the commercial banks, which is brought by the interest rate marketization reform, is increasing, the loan to deposit ratio is high, the capital supervision is increasingly strict and so on, which makes the development of the commercial bank balance in the short term; at the same time, the non bank gold is not available. A large amount of capital has an intrinsic impulse to seek its own value. Under these two aspects, the size of the shadow bank is expanding in our country. It is undeniable that the shadow bank has no doubt that it has a certain positive effect on promoting the development of China's economy, but its great risks can not be ignored. The development of the world financial market is not to be ignored. In view of our vision, we are walking through the path that developed countries in Europe and America have passed through the rebalancing process of the adjustment of the financing structure. Perhaps when the degree is appropriate, the economic growth will be more quality; perhaps when this degree is not properly mastered, financial risk has quietly latent. Therefore, the risk management of the shadow banking, In fact, it is a new subject, both of the overseas experience that can be used for reference, and the unique national conditions of our country, which deserves our thorough discussion, and seeks the direction and focus of the innovation and development from it.
At present, the domestic scholars have made some achievements in the research of the shadow banking. On this basis, we further divide the shadow bank into the shadow Bank of the commercial banks, the shadow banks in the non bank financial institutions and the shadow banking of the informal finance, which have just started in the regulation of the informal finance in China. We can not collect data and data, therefore, we will focus on the risk identification and control of the first two types of shadow banks, and put forward the policy recommendations for the shadow banking risk management. The main work of this paper is as follows:
First, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the origin, definition, risk and supervision of the shadow Bank of China and the United States, summarizes the basic characteristics of the shadow Bank of China, finds the target for the risk management analysis of the shadow Bank of China, and provides the practical case and theoretical basis for the analysis.
Second, the risk of the shadow banking business in commercial banks is studied, and the identification of the risk signals, the measurement of the risk degree and the control of the risk hazard are analyzed, and the place where the greatest risk may occur is put forward by quantitative analysis.
Third, the risk in the shadow banking business of non bank financial institutions is analyzed. First, the shadow banking business and the risk categories in the main non bank financial institutions are analyzed. Secondly, the risk of the trust business is calculated according to the collected data, and the hazard degree of the shadow banking risk is discussed, as well as the focus of prevention and control. Point.
Fourth, through the analysis and calculation of the above, the suggestions of optimizing the supervision system are put forward. From the direction of the government's financial reform, the capital arbitrage impulse of the industry and the construction of the compliance system of the enterprise, the risk of the shadow bank is regulated in all aspects. The aim is to dissolve the risks of the shadow bank to the internal financial system.
In general, based on the analysis of the characteristics and problems of the shadow banking itself, this paper analyzes the risk control theory and the dissolving experience of the shadow banking system in our country with the experience of more than 20 years' commercial bank management and management. The most important of these is the impulse to make profit by the shadow banking business. One is that our country should carry out the market-oriented interest rate system. It is undeniable that our country has begun to pilot interest rate marketization in the near future, and change the original fixed deposit and loan benchmark interest rate into the upper and lower limit, the floating interest rate, but the continuous innovation of our country's financial production. Compared with the system, there are still a certain gap. Therefore, only the interest rate can truly reflect the demand for funds in the financial market, and the risk of the shadow banking system can be reduced. Two, the implementation of asset securitization must solve the contradiction between financial innovation and risk control system in the system construction. The future outlet of the shadow bank is inevitable It is an asset securitization business which has been paid more and more attention, but no matter what kind of financial innovation, it must be a financial activity in the range of risk control, but it can not be copied from abroad. It is necessary to minimize the financial risk in order to minimize the financial risk, and try to cut off the way of transmission between the real economy and the real economy. Financial innovation really serves the development of the economy and society.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.3

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