FDI对中国国际收支的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 16:34

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 国际收支　；参考：《天津商业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，受招商引资政策的指引，我国掀起了引进外资的热潮。外资投入初期，由于投资额相对较小，其对我国的国际收支影响并不显著；在1992年以后，随着外资的流入加速，FDI成为我国引进外资的主要形式，FDI开始对我国国际收支产生显著影响，进而成为影响我国国民经济发展的重要因素。与此同时，我国的国际收支结构也发生了显著的变化，经常项目和资本和金融项目多年持续保持“双顺差”。目前，面对着巨额的FDI存量，伴随着世界经济的不景气以及我国劳动力成本优势逐渐消失，FDI对我国未来的国际收支影响可能会发生变化，在这样的背景下，研究FDI对我国国际收支的影响具有重要的现实意义。首先，本文梳理了国内外专家学者关于FDI对国际收支的影响研究，从而为下文分析FDI对我国国际收支的影响奠定了理论基础；然后，阐述了我国利用FDI和我国国际收支的概况，综合以上的理论分析，得出FDI影响我国国际收支的机理，不同阶段的FDI对我国的国际收支各项目影响是不同的，并以图和表的形式概括的分析了FDI对我国国际收支各个子项目的影响，各个子项目之间不是相互孤立的，而是互相联系的，，最终结论是FDI对我国国际收支的贸易差额产生正向效应，对投资收益差额产生负向效应，贸易顺差是导致经常项目顺差的主要原因；FDI对资本和金融项目产生正向的效应。而后，笔者建立了计量经济模型，采用了1997-2012年的统计数据，运用协整的分析技术，建立了VAR模型，在VAR模型的基础上，建立了经常项目和资本和金融项目的脉冲响应函数，并对经常项目和资本和金融项目进行了方差分解。FDI对经常项目波动的贡献率大约在19%，对资本和金融项目波动的贡献率大约在15%。在本文的最后，笔者从促进加工贸易产业升级、改变服务贸易逆差、适度外汇储备规模等角度提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country has set off the upsurge of introducing foreign capital under the guidance of the policy of attracting foreign investment. In the initial stage of foreign investment, because the investment is relatively small, its impact on China's balance of payments is not significant; after 1992, With the inflow of foreign capital, FDI has become the main form of FDI in China. FDI has a significant impact on China's balance of payments and has become an important factor affecting the development of China's national economy. At the same time, China's balance of payments structure has also undergone significant changes, the current account and capital and financial accounts have maintained a "double surplus" for many years. At present, in the face of the huge stock of FDI, with the recession of the world economy and the gradual disappearance of China's labor cost advantage, the impact of FDI on our future balance of payments may change. It is of great practical significance to study the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments. First of all, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the impact of FDI on the balance of payments, so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the following analysis of the impact of FDI on China's balance of payments, and then expounds the general situation of China's use of FDI and China's balance of payments. Based on the above theoretical analysis, it is concluded that the mechanism of FDI influencing China's balance of payments is different from that of different stages of FDI to various items of China's balance of payments. And in the form of diagram and table, the paper analyzes the impact of FDI on the sub-items of China's balance of payments. The sub-items are not isolated, but interrelated. The final conclusion is that FDI has a positive effect on China's balance of payments trade balance and a negative effect on investment income balance. Trade surplus is the main reason leading to the current account surplus. Then, the author establishes the econometric model, adopts the statistical data from 1997-2012, establishes the VAR model by using the cointegration analysis technology, and establishes the impulse response function of the current account and the capital and financial projects on the basis of the VAR model. The contribution rate of FDI to current account volatility is about 19, and the contribution rate to capital and financial project volatility is about 15 percent. At the end of this paper, the author puts forward some policy suggestions from the perspective of promoting the upgrading of processing trade industry, changing the trade deficit in services, and the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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