资本账户开放背景下跨境资本流动变化研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 12:28

本文选题：资本账户开放 + 跨境资本流动　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：资本账户开放一直是经济研究中的热门话题，2008年金融危机之后，影响全球资本流动的重要事件不断出现，欧债危机、美联储第三轮和第四轮量化宽松、美国财政悬崖、日本的持续衰退以及中国的结构转型都将增加全球资本流动的不确定性，这也凸显出对资本账户开放后，关于跨境资本流动特点及其影响研究的重要性。中国作为最大的发展中国家和发展速度最快的国家，其资本账户开放不仅关系人民币国际化，更与中国金融改革与宏观稳定紧密联系。在此背景下，本文从历史角度出发，运用比较分析法，对跨境资本流动变化特点进行了深入分析，通过实证分析，研究了跨境资本流动与汇率和资产价格之间的关系。本文共分为五章。第一章为绪论，主要介绍了本课题研究的背景和意义；第二章阐述了目前关于跨境资本流动的相关理论；第三章论述了资本账户开放的测度和我国资本账户开放规模，根据开放度划分资本账户开放阶段，为后文分析作铺垫。同时，运用对比方法，对中国、美国和日本三国的跨境资本流动形式和流动期限进行结构分析，总结三个国家资本流动的结构特点，并对其结构特征进行了波动性分析；第四章为跨境资本流动影响的实证分析。采用SVAR模型，对跨境资本流动、资本市场和汇率市场三者之间的相互影响进行分析。鉴于中国和日本开放的实际情况类似，以日本的实证结果作为资本账户完全开放的参考，，为中国进一步资本流动管理提供借鉴；最后部分是政策建议与未来跨境资本流动的展望。
[Abstract]:The opening of the capital account has always been a hot topic in economic research. After the 2008 financial crisis, important events affecting global capital flows continued to emerge, the European debt crisis, the third and fourth rounds of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, the US fiscal cliff, The continuing recession in Japan and the structural transformation in China will increase the uncertainty of global capital flows, which also highlights the importance of studying the characteristics of cross-border capital flows and their impact after the opening of the capital account. As the largest developing country and the fastest developing country, China's capital account opening is not only related to the internationalization of RMB, but also closely related to China's financial reform and macro stability. In this context, this paper, from the historical point of view, uses comparative analysis to analyze the characteristics of cross-border capital flows. Through empirical analysis, this paper studies the relationship between cross-border capital flows and exchange rate and asset prices. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of this research; the second chapter describes the current related theories on cross-border capital flows; the third chapter discusses the measure of capital account opening and the scale of capital account opening in China. According to the degree of openness, the capital account is divided into open stages, which pave the way for the following analysis. At the same time, by using the comparative method, the paper analyzes the structure of the cross-border capital flow in China, the United States and Japan, summarizes the structural characteristics of the capital flows in the three countries, and analyzes the structural characteristics of the three countries. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of cross-border capital flows. SVAR model is used to analyze the interaction among cross-border capital flow, capital market and exchange rate market. In view of the fact that the opening of China and Japan is similar, the empirical results of Japan are taken as the reference for the full opening of the capital account, which provides a reference for the further management of capital flows in China. The last part is the policy recommendations and the prospect of cross-border capital flows in the future.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6

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