东亚区域汇率协调问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 00:28

本文选题：东亚 + 汇率协调　；参考：《吉林大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：本文的写作遵循着从东亚经济体间汇率波动现状出发，最后回归到东亚经济体汇率制度选择的逻辑思维脉络，并始终以协调与合作的思想作为支撑。首先，东亚经济体普遍盯住美元作为一种现实状况被加以证实了。那么，在盯住美元的大前提之下，基于一种“传递”的思想，东亚经济体间汇率应表现出一定的相关性，那么现实状况如何？这种相关性的短期变化和长期趋势如何？东亚经济体间汇率的相关性是否可以持续？假设在存在汇率联动的情况下，东亚经济体间是否构成了潜在的最优货币区？如果说存在着潜在的最优货币区，那么东亚经济体又应该如何进行汇率制度选择？本文将通过实证检验及理论分析对上述问题进行回答。实际上，对上述问题的思考源于欧元区建立的实践经验。作者认为，欧洲国家存在着一种汇率协调的“思维”。从欧洲国家主张重新建立金本位到二战后英国提出“凯恩斯计划”，从布雷顿森林体系框架下各国自发性的汇率协调到布雷顿森林体系崩溃后欧洲国家建立的“蛇形浮动”（Snake in the Tunnel），从欧洲货币体系到欧元区的建立，汇率协调的“思维”始终贯穿其中，并由汇率协调过渡到汇率合作。这种汇率协调的思维与欧洲贸易一体化相辅相承，为欧盟和欧元区的建立提供了重要的现实基础和制度保障。可见，这种由汇率协调“思维”所带来的汇率稳定是欧洲货币联盟建立的先行者，也就是说，欧洲国家间汇率的稳定是其组建欧洲货币联盟的重要前提条件。基于这样一个逻辑框架，在东亚区域经济体汇率稳定（自发性汇率协调）的基础上，是否可以形成最优货币区，这也是本文所要阐明的问题。本文首先对亚洲金融危机后东亚区域货币金融合作的现状进行了简要的回顾，包括东亚区域信息沟通及预警机制的建立、清迈倡议的启动及其多边化、东亚债券市场的发展等。在此基础上重点介绍了目前东亚区域汇率协调取得的进展。从现实情况来看，尚无制度性加以保障的汇率协调与合作，而亚洲货币单位的建立也仅作为衡量区域内经济体汇率变动情况的一般性指标，并无推动东亚区域汇率协调与合作进一步发展的实质性力量。最后，危机频发使东亚经济体认识到加强区域经济合作的重要性与紧迫性，但目前东亚经济体对“美元体制”的依赖和美国霸权的绝对影响仍是现阶段东亚区域合作面临的主要障碍。由此得出现阶段美元体制与东亚区域经济体自发性汇率协调的关系，并指出东亚经济体汇率协调与合作的两个悖论：其一，现阶段美元体制和美国霸权是阻碍东亚经济体汇率协调与合作的重要原因，而东亚经济体汇率的联动性反而是通过盯住美元实现的。其二，东亚经济体贸易的发展极易受到美元汇率波动的影响，东亚经济体希望能够减少美元汇率波动的负效应，但又不得不把大量的贸易顺差和外汇储备输入美国，形成对美元资产和美国资本市场的依赖，从而进一步巩固了东亚区域盯住汇率制度。东亚经济体的地位较为尴尬，既是美元体制的支撑者，又是美元体制的受害者；既想摆脱对美元体制的依赖，又不得不在美元体制下展开合作。麦金农（Mckinnon）①认为美元本位制的形成是一次偶然，而赫德森（Hudson）②指出现行以美元为主导的国际货币体系是经过美国充分设计的。从经济史的角度来看，美元的霸权地位起源于布雷顿森林体系的双挂钩机制，而布雷顿森林体系崩溃后美元地位不仅没有被削弱，反而进一步得到了加强。这既得益于商品美元和石油美元的回流机制，又得益于债券的美元计价机制。可以看出，商品美元的回流是美元霸权的重要支撑。也就是说，东亚经济体是美元霸权的重要支撑者，这种支撑作用在汇率方面的投射就是东亚经济体普遍采取盯住美元汇率制度。虽然东亚经济体官方多宣称使用的是有管理的浮动汇率制度，但盯住美元的这一现象已经通过多种实证检验方法加以证实了，即便是在不同时期美元权重有所不同，但美元的绝对地位从未被动摇。那么，基于“传递”效应，在东亚各经济体盯住汇率制度基础上，它们之间应该表现出汇率联动的特征。基于此，本文对东亚经济体汇率变动相关系数、基于G-PPP理论的汇率变动情况进行实证检验。结果表明，无论从短期还是从长期来看，东亚经济体间存在着没有制度性约束的汇率联动性特征。也就是说，东亚经济体间存在着自发性的汇率协调，为东亚区域汇率合作乃至形成最优货币区提供了一定的理论基础和经验支持。值得注意的是，这种汇率联动性以盯住美元为前提，由东亚经济体间紧密的贸易联系、相似的产业结构和贸易结构、趋同的经济周期和宏观经济政策加以保证。即在商品美元回流机制和东亚整体区域经济增长的前提下，这种汇率联动特征在未来较长一段时间内可以持续。基于东亚经济体自发性的汇率协调，本文用最优货币区理论标准检验东亚自发性汇率协调区域是否构成了最优货币区。首先，通过建立数理模型分析组建最优货币区所带来的宏观经济政策调整成本。随后，对东亚经济体生产要素标准、经济开放度标准、产品多样化标准、金融一体化标准、通胀相似性标准和政策一体化标准进行检验。分析结果表明，东亚经济体最优货币区标准检验结果并不理想，这既与标准选择的可行性与有效性有关，亦与东亚经济体的某些特殊情况有关。基于此，本文从东亚经济体一体化程度出发，分析东亚经济体是否存在着“事后”的最优货币区。长期来看，东亚经济体自发性汇率协调区域满足了组建最优货币的部分条件，已经具备了推进更高层次合作的可能性。文章最后对东亚区域汇率协调与合作的长期安排进行探讨。贝奥米和埃肯格林（Bayoumi and Eichengreen，1994）指出任何中间汇率制度最终都会向两极汇率制度过渡。然而，从东亚区域的现实状况来看，美元体制仍是制约其合作的最重要因素。应在本文分析的东亚区域自发性汇率协调的基础上，充分发挥人民币作为区域稳定器的作用①，同时明确区域合作中中国、日本甚至是美国的领导地位。短期来看，进一步巩固与加强东亚经济体间的汇率联动关系；中期来看，巩固加强现有东亚货币金融合作取得的成果，充分协调中日两国的关系；长期来看，以东亚次区域汇率协调推动东亚区域汇率合作，最终实现东亚地区货币一体化。本文结论如下：第一，在东亚经济体盯住美元的汇率制度下，各经济体间表现出汇率联动的特征，形成了自发性汇率协调。第二，这种汇率联动性以盯住美元为前提，由东亚经济体间紧密的贸易联系、相似的产业结构和贸易结构，趋同的经济周期和宏观经济政策加以保证。第三，在保证美元体制和东亚整体区域经济增长的前提下，这种汇率联动特征在未来较长一段时间内可以持续。第四，东亚自发性汇率协调区域满足部分最优货币区的标准，，具备了推进更高层次合作的可能性。第五，短期来看，进一步巩固与加强东亚经济体间的汇率联动关系；中期来看，充分协调中日两国的关系；长期来看，以东亚次区域汇率协调推动东亚区域汇率合作，最终实现东亚地区货币一体化。
[Abstract]:This article follows the current situation of exchange rate fluctuation between East Asian economies, and finally returns to the logical thinking of the choice of the exchange rate system of East Asian economies, and always supports the thought of coordination and cooperation. Under the big premise, based on the idea of "transfer", the exchange rate between East Asian economies should show a certain correlation, then what is the real situation? What is the short-term and long-term trend of this correlation? Can the correlation between East Asian economies exchange rates continue? Assuming that in the presence of exchange rates, the East Asian economies are If there is a potential best currency area, then how should the East Asian economy choose the exchange rate system? This paper will answer the above questions through empirical test and theoretical analysis.
In fact, thinking about the above problems stems from the practical experience established in the eurozone. The author believes that there is a "thinking" of exchange rate coordination in European countries. From the European countries to reestablish the gold standard to the "Keynes plan" after World War II, the spontaneous exchange rate of countries in the framework of the Bretton Woods system is coordinated to bray. The "snake like floating" (Snake in the Tunnel) established by the European countries after the collapse of the forest system was established from the European monetary system to the euro zone. The "thinking" of the exchange rate coordination has always run through the exchange rate coordination to the exchange rate cooperation. This exchange of exchange rate coordination is complementary to the European trade integration, for the European Union and the euro zone. The establishment of exchange rate stability caused by the "thinking" of exchange rate is the forerunner of the establishment of the European Monetary Union. That is to say, the stability of the exchange rate between European countries is an important prerequisite for the formation of the European Monetary Union. Based on such a logical framework, the European currency alliance is in the East Asia region. Based on the exchange rate stability of regional economies (spontaneous exchange rate coordination), whether the optimal currency area can be formed is also a problem to be clarified in this paper.
This paper first briefly reviews the current situation of regional monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia after the Asian financial crisis, including the establishment of regional information communication and early warning mechanism in East Asia, the initiation and multilateralism of the Chiang Mai initiative and the development of the East Asian bond market. On this basis, the progress of regional exchange rate coordination in East Asia has been emphasized. In reality, there is no system to guarantee exchange rate coordination and cooperation, and the establishment of Asian monetary unit is only a general index to measure the change of exchange rate in the region, and there is no substantial force to promote the further development of regional exchange rate coordination and cooperation in East Asia. To strengthen the importance and urgency of regional economic cooperation, the dependence of the East Asian economies on the "dollar system" and the absolute influence of American hegemony are still the main obstacles in the present stage of regional cooperation in East Asia. The two paradoxes of the coordination and cooperation of the exchange rate are: first, the US dollar system and American hegemony are the important reasons that impede the exchange rate coordination and cooperation of the East Asian economies, while the linkage of the East Asian economies is realized by pegging the dollar. Secondly, the development of the East Asian economies is easily affected by the exchange rate fluctuations of the dollar. East Asian economies hope to reduce the negative effects of US dollar exchange rate fluctuations, but have to enter a large number of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves into the United States to form a dependence on the dollar assets and the American capital market, thus further consolidating the East Asia regional peg regime. Supporters are also the victims of the US dollar system. They want to get rid of the dependence on the US dollar system and have to cooperate under the US dollar system.
Mackinnon (Mckinnon) (1) thought that the formation of the dollar standard was an accident, while Hudson (Hudson) was fully designed by the United States. From the perspective of economic history, the hegemony of the dollar originated from the double hook mechanism of the Bretton Woods system and the Brayton forest system collapsed. The post break dollar status is not only undermined, but further strengthened. This is not only benefited from the return mechanism of commodity dollars and oil dollars, but also the dollar valuation mechanism of bonds. It can be seen that the return of commodity dollars is an important support for us dollar hegemony. That is to say, the East Asian economy is an important supporter of US dollar hegemony. The projection of the support effect on the exchange rate is that East Asian economies generally take a peg to the dollar exchange rate regime. Although the officials in the East Asian economies claim to use a managed floating exchange rate system, the phenomenon of pegging to the dollar has been verified by a variety of empirical methods, even at different times in the United States dollar weight. It is different, but the absolute position of the dollar has never been shaken.
Then, based on the "transfer" effect, on the basis of the peg exchange rate system in East Asia, they should show the characteristics of exchange rate linkage. Based on this, this paper makes an empirical test on the correlation coefficient of exchange rate change in East Asia economy and the change of exchange rate based on G-PPP theory. There are exchange rate linkage characteristics without institutional constraints between sub economies. That is to say, there is a spontaneous exchange rate coordination among East Asian economies, which provides a certain theoretical basis and experience support for regional exchange rate cooperation in East Asia and even the formation of the best currency area. It is guaranteed by close trade links between East Asian economies, similar industrial structure and trade structure, converging economic cycle and macroeconomic policy, which can continue for a long time in the future, on the premise of the return mechanism of commodity dollar and the overall regional economic growth in East Asia.
Based on the spontaneous exchange rate coordination of East Asian economies, this paper uses the optimal monetary area theory to test whether the East Asian spontaneous exchange rate coordination region constitutes the optimal currency area. First, the macroeconomic policy adjustment of establishing the optimal currency area is analyzed by establishing a mathematical model. Then, the standard of production factors for East Asian economies is made. The standard of economic openness, the standard of product diversification, the standard of financial integration, the standard of inflation similarity and the standard of policy integration are tested. The results show that the test result of the standard test of the best currency area of East Asia economy is not ideal, which is not only related to the feasibility and efficiency of the standard selection, but also with some special circumstances of the East Asian economies. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes whether East Asian economies have an "post" optimal currency area from the degree of integration of East Asian economies. In the long run, the region of the spontaneous exchange rate coordination of East Asian economies meets some conditions for the formation of the best currency, and has the possibility of pushing into a higher level of cooperation.
The article finally discusses the long-term arrangement of exchange rate coordination and cooperation in East Asia. BeO and AIKEN Green (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1994) point out that any intermediate exchange rate system will eventually transition to the two pole exchange rate system. However, from the reality of the East Asian region, the dollar system is still the most important factor restricting its cooperation. On the basis of the analysis of the spontaneous exchange rate coordination in the East Asia region, the role of the RMB as a regional stabilizer is fully played, and the leading position of China, Japan and even the United States in regional cooperation is clearly defined. In the short term, further consolidation and strengthening of the exchange rate relationship between East Asian economies is further strengthened; in the medium term, consolidation is strengthened. The results of the East Asian monetary and financial cooperation have fully coordinated the relations between China and Japan, and in the long run, the East Asia regional exchange rate cooperation is promoted by the East Asian subregional exchange rate coordination, and the monetary integration in East Asia is finally realized.
The conclusion of this paper is as follows:
First, under the exchange rate regime of East Asian economies pegged to the US dollar, the economies of various economies show the characteristics of exchange rate linkage, forming spontaneous exchange rate coordination.
Second, this exchange rate linkage is based on a peg to the dollar, which is guaranteed by close trade links between East Asian economies, similar industrial and trade structures, converging economic cycles and macroeconomic policies.
Third, under the premise of ensuring the US dollar system and the overall regional economic growth in East Asia, this exchange rate linkage will continue for a long time in the future.
Fourth, the East Asian spontaneous exchange rate coordination area meets the criteria of some optimal monetary areas, which has the possibility of promoting higher level cooperation.
Fifth, in the short term, further consolidating and strengthening the exchange rate relationship between East Asian economies; in the medium term, the relationship between China and Japan is fully coordinated; in the long run, East Asia regional exchange rate cooperation is promoted by the East Asian subregional exchange rate coordination, and the monetary integration of East Asia is finally realized.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F823.1;F831.6

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