人民币汇率、国内总需求与通货膨胀——基于汇率传递理论的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 16:43

本文选题：汇率传递 + 国内总需求　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2012年03期

【摘要】：通货膨胀一直是中国政府直接面对而又必须谨慎处理的经济问题。本文以汇率传递理论为视角,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)考察了1980—2010年人民币汇率、国内总需求、世界商品价格与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡和短期调整关系。长期看来,人民币升值并未像国际经济学理论描述的那样可以抑制通货膨胀,相反却显著地抬高了国内价格水平;中国通货膨胀的成因具有需求拉上的特点,且不存在明显的世界通货膨胀的输入途径。短期看来,中国通货膨胀的动态调整具有明显的滞后特征,且由短期变动向长期均衡调整的速度较快。
[Abstract]:Inflation has always been a direct and cautious economic problem for the Chinese government. From the perspective of exchange rate transfer theory, this paper investigates the long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment of RMB exchange rate, total domestic demand, world commodity price and inflation from 1980 to 2010 by using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB does not contain inflation as described in international economic theory. On the contrary, it has significantly raised the domestic price level; the causes of inflation in China are characterized by demand pulling. And there is no obvious input path to world inflation. In the short term, the dynamic adjustment of China's inflation has obvious lag characteristics, and the speed of the adjustment from short-term to long-term equilibrium is relatively fast.
【作者单位】：南京大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国应对国际金融风险的对策研究”(08AJY029) 江苏省哲学社会科学重点研究基地“金融风险管理研究中心”重大项目“区域金融稳定与金融风险管理研究”(2010JDXM021)
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6;F224

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