政府宏观经济政策对中国外部平衡的影响

发布时间：2018-05-27 03:10

本文选题：宏观经济政策 + 外部平衡　；参考：《南开大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：当前世界范围内的许多国家存在外部失衡现象,典型的例子是中国经历持续的经常账户盈余。外部失衡会带来诸多危害性的后果,包括酿成经济危机和增加金融系统风险,其对本轮全球经济危机发挥了导火索的作用。一些研究指出政府经济政策也是导致外部失衡的原因,但现有文献未系统研究政府经济政策对外部平衡的作用机制,也未定量考察政府经济政策对其外部平衡的贡献度。对于中国这样一个经历持续外部盈余,而且政府在经济活动中扮演重要角色的大国,深入地分析经济政策对外部平衡的影响具有现实意义,研究结论也可以为中国的外部失衡调整提供借鉴。本文回顾中国财政、货币和汇率政策的特征,从而为后续章节构建理论和经验模型提供现实基础。中国财政政策的主要特征表现为社会保障性支出在财政支出中占比过低,同时政府预算赤字和公债负担都比较低；中国货币政策的主要特征为政府长期倚重数量型政策,将货币总量M2作为货币政策的中介目标,并且运用多种操作工具以实现货币政策的多重任务属性；中国汇率政策的主要特征包括管理型汇率、外汇储备积累和资本管制,中国政府选择性地允许资本流入并限制私人持有外汇资产,此外,为了维持相对于美元的汇率稳定,央行在外汇市场上频繁干预并且积累大量的外汇储备。本文核心部分为第四章至第六章。第四章和第五章分别探讨财政政策、货币政策和汇率政策影响外部平衡的机制,从理论和经验上确定每种政策影响外部平衡的方向,从而为第六章的符号限定方法核算经济政策的影响程度提供依据。关于经济政策如何影响外部平衡,本文主要的结论包括财政支出增加导致外部盈余减少,本国货币供给增加导致外部盈余增加,汇率贬值导致外部盈余增加。第六章运用综合的计量框架来考察政府宏观经济政策对中国外部失衡的贡献度,从而为讨论政府在失衡调整中应发挥怎样的作用提供政策建议。样本期间的经验结果表明,货币政策对中国外部平衡的影响最大,财政政策和汇率政策的作用力度相当,整体上经济政策因素可以解释50%左右的中国外部平衡变动。本文的创新之处包括以下3方面： 1.当前文献大都从私人或企业的视角研究外部失衡,本文强调经济政策因素的重要性,并从政府视角系统分析经济政策对外部平衡的作用机制,从而提供更为全面的外部失衡调整思路。 2.本文构建符合中国政策特征的理论模型,例如货币总量调控、资本管制和管理型汇率等行为特征,探讨每一种政府经济政策影响外部平衡的机制,并为经验部分提供可供检验的命题。 3.在经验检验部分,运用较新的计量方法例如面板分位数模型、面板条件同质性向量自回归模型(PCHVAR)和贝叶斯符号限制向量自回归模型(SBVAR)等,考察政策因素对外部平衡的影响,并分析中国外部失衡不同解释因素的相对重要性。除了现有的促进金融发展、改善制度质量、调整产业结构以及放开计划生育限制等缓解中国外部盈余的政策建议之外,通过本文的理论和经验分析,并结合中国经济运行的现实状况,我们对中国政府在外部失衡调整中的作用提出以下政策建议：在财政政策方面,加大社会保障支出是调整外部失衡的可行财政政策措施,既通过财政支出渠道降低外部盈余,又通过削减居民预防性储蓄进一步降低外部盈余。在货币政策方面,放缓货币投放速度是降低外部盈余的有效手段,推进人民币国际化也有利于减少美元流动性需求所引致的外汇储备积累。在汇率政策方面,人民币应当具备更灵活的汇率形成机制并允许渐进升值。
[Abstract]:There are external imbalances in many countries around the world. The typical example is China's continuous current account surplus. External imbalances will bring many harmful consequences, including the economic crisis and the increase of financial system risks, which play a leading role in the global economic crisis. Some studies point out the government. Economic policy is also the cause of external imbalances, but the existing literature does not systematically study the mechanism of the external balance of the government's economic policy, nor does it examine the contribution of the government's economic policy to its external balance. For a country such as China, which has experienced the external surplus, and the government plays an important role in economic activities, Further analysis of the impact of external balance of economic policy is of practical significance, and the conclusion can also provide reference for China's external imbalance adjustment.
This paper reviews the characteristics of China's fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies, which provides a realistic basis for the construction of theoretical and empirical models in the following chapters. The main characteristics of China's fiscal policy are that social security expenditure is too low in fiscal expenditure, and both the government budget deficit and the public debt burden are low; the main monetary policy of China is the main factor. It is characterized by the government's long-term reliance on quantitative policy, the M2 as the intermediary target of monetary policy, and the use of various operating tools to achieve the multiple task properties of monetary policy; the main features of China's exchange rate policy include the management exchange rate, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and capital control, and the Chinese government selectively permits capital flow. In addition, in order to maintain the stability of the exchange rate relative to the dollar, the central bank intervenes frequently in the foreign exchange market and accumulates a large amount of foreign exchange reserves.
The core part of this paper is from fourth chapters to sixth chapters. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter respectively discuss the mechanism of fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy, which affect external balance in theory and experience, so as to provide the basis for the degree of the influence of the sixth chapter on the economic policy of the sixth chapter. How economic policy affects external balance, the main conclusion of this paper is that the increase of fiscal expenditure leads to the decrease of external surplus, the increase of domestic money supply leads to the increase of external surplus, and the exchange rate devaluation leads to the increase of external surplus. The sixth chapter uses a comprehensive measurement framework to examine the contribution of the government macroeconomic policy to the external imbalance of China. In order to discuss how the government should play its role in the imbalance adjustment, the empirical results of the sample period show that monetary policy has the greatest impact on China's external balance, and the role of fiscal policy and exchange rate policy is quite strong, and the overall economic policy factors can explain about 50% of the external balance changes in China.
The innovation of this paper includes the following 3 aspects:
1. the current literature mostly studies external imbalances from the perspective of private or enterprise. This article emphasizes the importance of economic policy factors and analyzes the mechanism of the external balance of economic policy from the perspective of the government, thus providing a more comprehensive adjustment of external imbalance.
2. this paper constructs a theoretical model which conforms to the characteristics of China's policy, such as the characteristics of the regulation of the total amount of money, the capital control and the management exchange rate, and discusses the mechanism of the influence of each government's economic policy on the external balance, and provides a propositional proposition for the empirical part.
3. in the empirical test part, using new measurement methods such as panel quantile model, panel condition homogeneity vector autoregressive model (PCHVAR) and Bayesian symbolic restriction vector autoregressive model (SBVAR), the influence of policy factors on external balance is investigated, and the relative importance of different interpretations of external imbalances in China is analyzed.
In addition to the existing policy proposals to promote financial development, improve the quality of the system, adjust the industrial structure and release the restriction of family planning restrictions on the external surplus of China, through the theoretical and empirical analysis of this article and the actual situation of China's economic operation, we put forward the following policy on the role of the Chinese government in the adjustment of external imbalances. Suggestions:
In fiscal policy, increasing the social security expenditure is a feasible fiscal policy measure to adjust the external imbalance, not only to reduce external surplus through the financial expenditure channels, but also to reduce the external surplus by reducing the residents' Preventive Savings. In monetary policy, the slowing down of the speed of money delivery is an effective means to reduce external surplus and propelling people. The internationalization of the people's currency also helps to reduce the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves caused by the liquidity demand of the US dollar. In terms of exchange rate policy, the RMB should have a more flexible exchange rate formation mechanism and allow for gradual appreciation.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F123.16;F832.6

【参考文献】