人民币升值、商品异质性与出口结构调整

发布时间：2018-05-30 06:00

本文选题：人民币升值 + 汇率传递　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2015年02期

【摘要】：本文基于2005-2012年间中国对20个主要出口市场HS六位数编码的细分商品出口数据,利用样本选择模型与Hausman-Taylor AR(1)回归相结合的两阶段估计方法,分析评估了人民币升值对我国出口商品结构的影响与传导机制。研究发现,人民币升值在抑制出口总量增长的同时,支持高技术产品的出口比重提升,推动出口商品结构的"高端化"演进。与此同时,由于人民币升值对中等技术制成品的负面冲击强于资源性产品,使得出口商品结构趋向于"低端化"发展。人民币升值的结构调整效应主要通过成本因素的传导机制发挥作用,异质性商品在成本结构上的差异性,决定了本币升值的成本节约利得悬殊,进而导致出口价格和出口规模发生不同程度的变动,最终引起出口商品结构的动态调整。
[Abstract]:Based on the HS six-digit coded subdivision export data of 20 major export markets in China from 2005 to 2012, this paper presents a two-stage estimation method combining sample selection model with Hausman-Taylor AR1 regression. This paper analyzes and evaluates the influence and transmission mechanism of RMB appreciation on China's export commodity structure. The research found that RMB appreciation not only restrained the total export growth, but also supported the increase of export proportion of high-tech products, and promoted the "high-end" evolution of export commodity structure. At the same time, the negative impact of RMB appreciation on medium-technology manufactured goods is stronger than that of resource-based products, which makes the export commodity structure tend to "low-end" development. The structural adjustment effect of RMB appreciation mainly plays a role through the transmission mechanism of cost factors. The difference in cost structure of heterogeneous commodities determines the difference in cost savings and benefits of local currency appreciation. Then the export price and export scale change in different degrees, and finally cause the dynamic adjustment of export commodity structure.
【作者单位】：上海立信会计学院高职学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“全球价值链变迁与中国对外经济发展方式转变”(编号:14BJL053) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“对外经济发展方式转变:过程评价与风险预警”(编号:13YJA790102) 上海市教委科研创新重点项目“人民币升值、企业行为与出口结构调整”(编号:13ZS135) 央财国际贸易重点学科带头人培养计划
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

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