人民币跨境流通对我国货币政策独立性影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 16:37

本文选题：人民币跨境流通 + 货币政策　；参考：《南京师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,人民币以其稳定的币值和我国的强大的综合国力为后盾,在国际市场上流通的范围和规模不断扩大,自2009年人民币跨境交易业务逐步开展,人民币境外存量规模进一步扩大。人民币跨境流通的最大动因是满足实物经济贸易和金融活动中对人民币的需求,是市场和宏观政策共同导致的结果。这一现象的存在对我国宏观经济调控和货币政策的制定和实施会产生重要影响。对人民币跨境流通的研究,对了解国际货币市场场的流通状况、掌握人民币国际地位、关注央行宏观政策制定实施情况等各方面都至关重要。所以本文研究人民币跨境流通对我国货币政策独立性的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先对人民币跨境流通及渠道进行分析,并在此基础上理论分析人民币跨境流通对我国货币政策独立性的影响,然后采用间接估算法间接测算出2006年第1季度到2013年第4季度的人民币跨境流通规模,运用VAR模型实证研究人民币跨境流通对我国货币政策独立性的影响。结果显示,人民币境外存量受人民币跨境交易的影响在波动中稳步上升,其变动对我国货币政策独立性产生影响,但目前影响并不十分显著,最后对我国人民币跨境流通监管和拓宽人民币跨境流出入渠道以及提高我国货币政策独立性给出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the RMB, backed by its stable currency value and our country's strong comprehensive national strength, has continuously expanded the scope and scale of circulation in the international market. Since 2009, the cross-border transactions of RMB have been gradually carried out. The scale of RMB stock outside China was further expanded. The biggest motivation of RMB cross-border circulation is to meet the demand for RMB in physical economy, trade and financial activities, which is the result of both market and macro policy. The existence of this phenomenon will have an important impact on the formulation and implementation of macroeconomic regulation and monetary policy in China. The research on the cross-border circulation of RMB is very important to understand the circulation situation of the international money market, to grasp the international status of RMB, and to pay attention to the implementation of the central bank's macro policy. Therefore, this paper has important theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of RMB cross-border circulation on the independence of monetary policy in China. This paper first analyzes the cross-border circulation of RMB and its channels, and then theoretically analyzes the influence of cross-border circulation of RMB on the independence of monetary policy in China. Then, the scale of RMB cross-border circulation from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2013 is estimated indirectly by indirect estimation method, and the influence of cross-border circulation of RMB on the independence of monetary policy in China is studied empirically by using VAR model. The results show that the stock of RMB outside China is rising steadily under the influence of RMB cross-border transactions, and its changes have an impact on the independence of monetary policy in China, but the impact is not very significant at present. Finally, some policy suggestions are given to supervise the cross-border circulation of RMB, widen the channel of cross-border outflow of RMB, and improve the independence of monetary policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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