FDI、出口与区域经济增长——异质面板“格兰杰”因果检验的应用

发布时间：2018-06-10 06:16

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 出口　；参考：《经济管理》2012年06期

【摘要】：本文运用基于滞后增广向量自回归(LA-VAR)模型和Bootstrap的异质面板"格兰杰"因果检验方法,对中国1987～2010年的省际面板数据进行实证分析,检验外商直接投资(FDI)、出口和经济增长的关系。结果显示,总体上看,FDI、出口和经济增长两两之间存在异质双向因果关系;分开来看,仅有19个省区存在至少一个方向的因果关系,其中84%的省区位于中西部地区。在短期内,中西部地区外商直接投资、出口与经济增长的关系更为紧密。本文的政策涵义是,对部分中西部省区而言,仍有必要扩大招商引资或出口的规模,但对于东部发达地区而言,优化外商直接投资和出口贸易的结构,才是发挥对外开放促进长期经济增长潜力的关键。
[Abstract]:Based on the lag augmented vector autoregressive model and Bootstrap's Granger causality test, this paper makes an empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data from 1987 to 2010 to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth. The results show that, on the whole, there is a heterogeneous two-way causal relationship between export and economic growth, and only 19 provinces and regions have at least one direction of causality, 84% of them are located in the central and western regions. In the short term, foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth in central and western regions are more closely related. The policy implication of this paper is that it is still necessary for some central and western provinces and regions to expand the scale of investment or export, but for the eastern developed regions, the structure of foreign direct investment and export trade should be optimized. It is the key to give full play to the potential of opening to the outside world to promote long-term economic growth.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究”(11&ZD008) 教育部人文社科青年基金项目“外商直接投资与中国适度收入不平等问题研究”(11YJC790075)
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F752.62;F127

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